Discussion around XRP’s long-term price outlook picked up this week following remarks from David Schwartz during a Q&A exchange with members of the XRP community on X. The former Chief Technology Officer of Ripple and one of the original architects of the XRP Ledger weighed in on claims that XRP could realistically reach price levels between $50 and $100.
Interestingly, Schwartz’s view wasn’t one of outright bullishness but on how markets actually price belief, probability, and conviction with a blunt reality check.
When asked whether to tell investors that XRP cannot realistically reach $50 or $100, Schwartz refused to give in to take that position. Instead, he began by explaining why he was uncomfortable making absolute statements about XRP’s future price. Drawing on personal experience, he pointed out that he once considered much lower milestones unrealistic, including XRP trading above $0.25 and Bitcoin reaching $100 as an impossible dream.
However, personal disbelief was not the issue. His contention is based on how rational markets behave when participants genuinely believe in a specific outcome.
According to Schwartz, if a meaningful number of rational investors truly believed there was even a modest chance of XRP reaching $100 within a few years, the market would already reflect that belief.
In such a scenario, investors would be unwilling to sell XRP at prices far below $10, and buyers with that conviction would rapidly absorb available supply. At the time of writing, XRP is trading well below $10, and is yet to even establish $2 as a support floor. The fact that XRP continues to trade well under that level, in his view, shows that very few market participants actually assign a serious probability to a $100 outcome.
According to Schwartz, cryptocurrency markets are more rational than they are often given credit for. However, he also noted his personal belief that most significant crypto bull runs were due to unpredictable external changes. This caveat still opens up the possibility that XRP would, in fact, trade at $100 one day.
In a follow-up exchange, Schwartz responded to a comparison between XRP reaching $100 and Bitcoin’s early journey to $1,000. The unlikelihood of XRP reaching $100 is dependent more on the multiple of the asset than anything else.
A ten-fold increase in XRP, he said, is about as unlikely as a ten-fold increase in Bitcoin or Ethereum right now, regardless of whether that move occurred in the past or might happen in the future.
The idea that XRP would one day trade at $100 has been a popular idea among bullish XRP enthusiasts. However, a few critics have always downplayed the idea, citing the enormous amount of inflow this would take and saying it would be best to target lower prices like $10 first.
Schwartz’s remarks do not declare a $100 XRP impossible but follow the reasoning of the latter group. Instead, the Ripple emeritus CTO challenges the logic behind confidently promoting such targets when the market itself shows little willingness to price that outcome in today, something that might not sit well with XRP enthusiasts.
