How is XRP performing during bear markets and is a parabolic recovery rally inbound? Let’s find out what history has to say.
Ripple’s XRP is down 15% in the past seven days, 26% in the past fortnight, and over 40% in the past year. Clearly, it’s in a downtrend in what’s currently considered to be a bear market in the crypto industry.In the following, we will examine XRP’s price, some of its fundamentals, and try to figure out how it holds up during crypto winters.
After all, the popular saying is that we should “buy when there’s blood on the street,” and it feels like there’s plenty of blood on the streets right now. Just yesterday, for example, the popular Crypto Fear & Greed Index was at 7 points (Extreme fear). That’s right, we have rarely seen sentiment so depressed.
The first thing to consider when it comes to investing in cryptocurrencies is the type of coin you’re eyeing. XRP is an altcoin, meaning that it is inherently much more volatile than Bitcoin and, by extension, almost all of traditional finance. Unlike many other altcoins, XRP is tied to a large US-based corporation that is spending millions of dollars on marketing and other activities to generate value for its shareholders and users.
Ripple is building an “ultra-fast” settlement layer for banks and all sorts of financial institutions ot use, arguing that this is what the future holds. You know, no intermediaries, 24/7 access, etc. But what has this done for XRP exactly?
Well, its first pronounced crypto winter was felt back in 2018. After peaking above $3 and with Wall Street calling it the next coin to buy, XRP lost most of its value and traded close to $0.3 for most of the bear market.
Then came the bull market of 2021. In April of that year, the price surged to a high of around $1.7 and tracked most of the crypto market, attempting a double-top in November and eventually, once again, losing most of its value and plunging back toward $0.35 in spring 2022. XRP remained in a range around that level all the way until November of 2024, when it skyrocketed in value above $2, later achieving a new all-time high in July 2025.
In other words, bottom buyers enjoyed a nice return of close to 10x if they got in during the bear market ranges and sold around the top. Now, the price is repeating a similar pattern and is once again cooling down following a parabolic rally.
At the time of this writing, XRP sits on a total market cap of around $85 billion, meaning that it’s hard to argue in favor of a face-melting, millionaire-making rally. However, if history is any indication, cycles exist, and Ripple’s native cryptocurrency has been somewhat tracking them, despite a year-long lawsuit that had supposedly suppressed its dollar value for a while.
When it comes to the crypto markets, there are quite literally two types of assets – Bitcoin and everything else, where everything else tends to be a lot less sustainable in terms of price and staying power.
As I mentioned above, there’s a fully functioning, large-scale, US-based corporation behind XRP. Ripple is continually expanding its operations and product offerings. They have issued a stablecoin, RLUSD, and are actively obtaining additional licenses across major jurisdictions.
But XRP itself is not directly tied to the company’s success. The investment thesis, aside from its speculative nature, remains questionable, particularly as the industry matures and competition intensifies.
XRP holders do not receive anything – in fact, they’re buying a cryptocurrency that’s meant to transact. They also made this clear during the trial against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which argued that XRP is a security.
It does have a fixed supply, that’s true, but a lot of that supply is also concentrated in the hands of the company itself, which regularly sells it to fund operations.
So, is XRP a good investment right now? There has been a historic precedent in the altcoin producing face-melting rallies following periods of a prolonged downturn; there’s absolutely no denying that. However, history should never be used as an indication of what’s to happen next, and there might be another 90% of downside before any potential relief, so keep that in mind.
Naturally, none of the above is financial advice. It’s just an observation of XRP’s price performance in previous market cycles as well as its connection to Ripple.
