Bitcoin remains strong above $100,000 while geopolitical risks and Fed policy shifts keep retail investors sidelined.
According to the latest data, retail investors’ bullish sentiment in the crypto market plummeted in June 2025, reaching its lowest point since early April.
This drop comes amid economic and geopolitical pressures. However, experts believe it could be a positive signal for an upcoming market rebound.
Data from Santiment, a crypto market behavior analytics platform, shows that the ratio of bullish to bearish comments on social media has dropped to just 1.03 bullish comments per bearish one.
This is the lowest level since April, when fear over tariff-related policies hit the market.
Santiment’s report indicates that traders are losing patience, and bearish sentiment is growing within the crypto community. This trend is common during quiet market periods when investor confidence is under pressure.
However, Santiment analyst Brianq believes this could actually signal a market recovery based on past behavior.
“This is typically a bullish sign. Markets historically move the opposite direction of retail’s expectations. A prime example was the optimal buy time during the early April fear from other traders,” Brianq commented.
Additionally, EllioTrades, founder of SuperVerse, described the current crypto market as experiencing a rare “asymmetric” phase.
He revealed that many in the crypto space have completely burned out. They’ve stopped trading and even stopped watching the market. His YouTube channel subscribers have dropped to 2019 levels, reflecting widespread apathy.
“Socially, we’re in the depths of a bear market in many ways.
And yet: Bitcoin is over $100K. Stablecoins just got legalized. DeFi is next. Institutions are FOMOing
This is one of the most incredible and asymmetric moments in the history of crypto,” EllioTrades said.
This contrast is striking. While the community seems to be at the “bottom” of a bear market, the market’s fundamentals show strong growth potential.
Sharing Brianq’s perspective, EllioTrades encourages those still in the game to stay committed and not give up.
A recent report by Glassnode offers deeper insight into the current market conditions. Despite Bitcoin prices hovering near all-time highs, on-chain transaction volume has dropped by nearly half.
Interestingly, though the number of transactions has decreased, the average value per transaction remains high at around $36,200. This suggests that institutions or high-net-worth individuals are dominating on-chain activity.
“Transactions exceeding $100,000 have shown a clear structural rise in dominance, accounting for 66% of network volume in November 2022, and increasing to 89% today. This trend reinforces the view that high-value participants are becoming increasingly dominant within on-chain activity,” the Glassnode report stated.
The lack of retail investors on-chain aligns with broader current events.
For example, rising tensions between Israel and Iran — including recent retaliatory attacks — have triggered concerns about geopolitical instability, affecting investor sentiment.
Additionally, the US Federal Reserve’s shift in tone regarding interest rate policy has added to investor anxiety. The Fed has delayed rate cuts amid heightened global tensions. Another factor was the massive leak of 16 billion passwords. This further deepened fear and insecurity among investors.
As risks mount, retail investors have more reasons to hesitate before deploying capital into the market.
