Institutional investors are unlikely to drive Bitcoin to new highs this year without a significant market-moving event, according to macro researcher and FFTT founder Luke Gromen.
“If you’re counting on institutional investors to push it from, you know, $90,000 to $150,000, that’s probably not going to happen without some major catalyst,” Gromen said in an episode of Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell, published on YouTube Wednesday.
“That’s not how institutional investors act,” he added. “They’re going to sit there and think, ‘I’ll wait. I’ll wait.’”
Bitcoin would need to climb roughly 67% from its current price of around $89,880 to reach $150,000—about 18.9% above its all-time high of $126,198, according to CoinMarketCap.
“At the very least, that suggests there’s still a lot of wood to chop for Bitcoin,” Gromen said.
Key market catalysts currently under watch include the US CLARITY Act, which faces uncertainty over its rollout, and potential further quantitative easing through additional rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Despite these concerns, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said on Wednesday that “institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong,” noting that institutional funds have purchased 577,000 Bitcoin over the past year—roughly $53 billion. “Still flowing in,” he added.
In December, asset manager Grayscale cited institutional demand and clearer US regulations as primary factors behind its forecast that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in the first half of 2026.
Gromen also suggested that Bitcoin could “easily” drop to $60,000 under certain adverse scenarios, such as an all-out trade war, US economic isolation, or a recession, which could prompt institutional sell-offs. “What happens to the cash flows of those businesses? Do they have to turn sellers? Are the treasury companies of this cycle forced sellers, like we saw around FTX in 2022?” he said.
Forced sales from treasury companies could flood the market with supply. The largest public Bitcoin treasury holder, Michael Saylor, currently holds 709,715 Bitcoin, worth roughly $63.77 billion, according to SaylorTracker. Overall, public Bitcoin treasury companies hold about 1.13 million Bitcoin, valued at approximately $101.56 billion, according to BitcoinTreasuries.NET.
