On February 14, PolyBeats — Rhythm BlockBeats’ subsidiary focused on prediction market research — officially released its *Russia-Ukraine War Prediction Market Analysis Report*. The report draws on 79 “Russia-Ukraine Occupation” series events from the Polymarket platform, analyzing over 23,316 independent on-chain addresses and 3.09 million transaction records. Using a dual model combining behavioral concentration and capital concentration screening, the team identified suspicious accounts with three key traits: highly concentrated transactions, abnormally stable win rates (80%-93%), and profitability that deviates sharply from typical retail investor patterns. Today’s prediction markets are no longer just betting tools — they’re a cutting-edge bridge linking blockchain data to news discovery. This report aims to reveal how prediction markets capture real geopolitical signals in advance via on-chain abnormal trading activity. PolyBeats has applied this methodology to real-time monitoring and validated it across multiple fields. The full report is available on the BlockBeats website and the official WeChat account “PolyBeats Truth Platform” (link: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w7lQciwanHV_rTp0zIHATg).
