XMR price drops 13%, while QUBIC token gains amid speculation and heightened trading activity following network disruption.
Qubic, a mining pool that has steadily increased its share of the network’s computational capacity, briefly gained control of more than half of Monero’s hashrate. This allowed it to carry out a chain reorganization involving six blocks earlier today, raising concerns of a potential full network takeover.
Control of over 51% of a blockchain’s hashrate enables the dominant miner to rewrite transaction history, execute double-spending attacks, and block specific transactions. Qubic’s control, according to several blockchain analysts, could orphan blocks mined by others, leaving no financial incentive for competing miners.
The attack’s cost estimates vary widely. Initial figures suggested $75 million per day, but blockchain security experts such as Charles Guillemet, CTO of Ledger, clarified that this figure relates to purchasing hardware outright. Renting equivalent computational capacity could cost closer to $100,000 per day.
Qubic halted its reorganization shortly after initiating it, stating that it had “chosen not to take over Monero yet.” The pool also disabled its API during the incident, limiting public verification of its hashrate. These actions have led to uncertainty about Qubic’s true computational power and its operational intentions.
While some Monero developers and traders view the incident as a calculated show of strength by Qubic, others question whether the reorganization qualifies as a complete 51% attack. Several commentators note that mining pools with as little as 2% of the hashrate could, by statistical variance, mine several consecutive blocks. Others believe Qubic used a selfish mining strategy, which requires less than 51% but still allows for targeted reorganizations.
Reports suggest Monero’s price has dropped by around 13% since the event, reflecting reduced confidence in network security. Meanwhile, the QUBIC token has experienced a modest increase in value, likely driven by heightened visibility and speculation about the pool’s next steps.
Economically, Qubic’s mining strategy links Monero block rewards to its own token’s market activity. Using a model it calls “Useful Proof of Work” the pool converts mined Monero into USDT and uses those funds to buy and burn QUBIC tokens. This process has drawn miners seeking predictable payouts, which in turn concentrates more hashing power under Qubic’s control.
Qubic’s stated position, expressed through public posts from its members, frames the incident as an “experiment” aimed at stress-testing Monero’s resilience and identifying vulnerabilities. They also suggest their long-term goal involves training artificial intelligence systems with their accumulated computing resources.
