A market commentator has suggested that an XRP rally to $50 could materialize as early as December 2025 if the U.S. SEC approves XRP ETFs by October.
For context, in October 2025, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces deadlines to decide on several XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. If the regulator signs off, spot XRP ETFs could debut in the fourth quarter.
Analysts believe this could attract institutional money, with some estimates suggesting inflows of billions of dollars in just a few weeks. This is because when Bitcoin ETFs arrived, they drew billions almost overnight. Interestingly, Ethereum ETFs followed the same pattern.
Specifically, at least six to seven major players, including Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and 21Shares, have already submitted official applications or amendments. Many of these filings came up right after Ripple’s legal victory over the SEC.
Notably, the timing of these applications aligns with an October decision window. Pumpius noted that the SEC must rule on filings such as WisdomTree’s by then, and because several issuers fall into the same review batch, approvals or denials could hit at once.
If the agency gives the green light, multiple ETFs could roll out in Q4. Pumpius added that regulatory momentum makes this outcome more likely. The SEC has started publishing guidance for crypto ETFs, while exchanges are creating common listing standards. Together, these steps make it easier to approve products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Pumpius then highlighted McClurg’s estimates that $5 billion or more could move into XRP ETFs in the first month. Notably, this demand would collide with XRP’s unique supply structure. Roughly 35 to 36 billion XRP remain in escrow, while much of the supply in circulation sits with large holders and exchanges.
In other words, the actual amount of XRP available to trade is much smaller than headline figures suggest. A sudden wave of institutional buying against this thin float could force sharp price jumps.
Pumpius also pointed to the derivatives markets. This year, both CME and Coinbase Derivatives launched regulated XRP futures, following the same pattern Bitcoin and Ethereum set before their ETFs. This created deeper liquidity and gave institutions another way to gain exposure, making the ETF runway even stronger.
He then calculated that if ETFs attract $5 to $8 billion in inflows by late November and another $5 to $10 billion arrives through futures arbitrage, investment advisor rebalancing, and corporate treasury allocations, XRP could face $10 to $18 billion in net demand by year-end.
According to Pumpius, the $50 rally would rely on compounding forces. Specifically, the ETF approval would finally unlock sidelined money from pensions, wealth managers, and institutions that need compliant exposure.
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