For three years, artificial intelligence (AI) has been the premier growth trend on Wall Street. Watching members of the “Magnificent Seven” devote tens of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure demonstrates what a game-changing technology it can be.
But a strong argument can be made that AI hasn’t been the hottest technology trend in 2025. The evolution of quantum computing has sent pure-play stocks IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (NYSE: QBTS), and Quantum Computing Inc. (NASDAQ: QUBT) higher by 123% to 2,090%, respectively, over the trailing year. These are potentially life-changing gains for early investors.
Quantum computing, which relies on specialized computers and the theories of quantum mechanics to solve complex problems that classical computers can’t perform, has the potential to create up to $850 billion in global economic value by 2040. It can do this by speeding up the AI algorithm learning process, improving weather modeling, beefing up cybersecurity platforms, and improving the drug-development process by running molecular interaction simulations, among the many postulated use cases of quantum computers.
Though sales growth estimates are climbing rapidly for quantum computing stocks, historical precedent, along with the black-and-white nature of corporate income statements, strongly suggests IonQ, Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum, and Quantum Computing Inc. stocks are going to plunge 50%, or perhaps far more, in 2026.
Next-big-thing technologies need ample time to mature
While there’s plenty of excitement and lofty expectations tied to the evolution of quantum computing, history serves as a warning for investors.
When the internet began going mainstream in the mid-1990s, we witnessed euphoria build within the investing community. However, it took years before businesses figured out how to properly optimize this technology and maximize their returns on investment. In other words, the internet took years to mature as a technology before for it became a foundational puzzle piece for corporate America.
For three decades, investors have consistently overestimated how quickly new technologies and hot trends would be adopted, utilized, and optimized on a broad scale by businesses and/or consumers. This occurred with the advent of the internet and was also observed with genome decoding, nanotechnology, 3D printing, blockchain technology, and the metaverse.
