Recent U.S. regulatory efforts to curb prediction markets have failed to dampen activity so far in early 2026, as trading volumes climbed to a record $701.7 million on Monday.
Kalshi dominated the market, accounting for roughly two-thirds of total volume with $465.9 million in trades, while rivals Polymarket and Opinion collectively logged about $100 million, according to Dune Analytics data cited by Gate Research.
The latest figure surpassed the previous high of $666.6 million set just a day earlier, with Kalshi maintaining a similarly wide lead in trading activity.
Prediction markets have emerged as one of crypto’s fastest-growing use cases, with adoption accelerating sharply since August.
Major crypto exchanges such as Coinbase and Gemini have either integrated or are planning to integrate prediction markets, while self-custody wallets like MetaMask have taken similar steps. These integrations, combined with rising trading volumes, have drawn increasing attention from Wall Street, with industry leaders Polymarket and Kalshi now commanding multibillion-dollar valuations.
Prediction markets face renewed scrutiny
Prediction markets returned to the regulatory spotlight earlier this month after an anonymous Polymarket user wagered roughly $30,000 on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before he was captured. The bet paid out more than $400,000, raising concerns about potential insider knowledge.
Lawmakers in New York are also preparing to review legislation that would seek to ban certain prediction markets tied to politics, sports, the stock market, and other areas. Connecticut, New York, Nevada, and New Jersey are among several U.S. states that have attempted to impose restrictions on prediction market operators, prompting legal pushback.
On Monday, a federal judge in Tennessee temporarily blocked state regulators from taking action against Kalshi, which had sued the state after being ordered to stop offering sports-related event contracts. Separately, reports earlier this week revealed that Ukraine blocked access to Polymarket in December, classifying prediction markets as a form of gambling.
