Alexandra is a Senior Content Editor at Techopedia with 10+ years of experience in covering tech, finance, crypto, igaming, and esports. Previously, Alex served as…
Prediction market platforms are surging toward $40 billion in transaction volumes, a 400% jump from 2024. As the new-ish betting category heads skyward in 2026, its two main players have formed a virtual duopoly that analysts think is nearly impregnable.
A report from Singapore-based crypto VC Foresight Ventures says Kalshi and Polymarket utterly dominate the market, sharing 99% of global volumes between them. Each is positioned differently, with Kalshi focused on regulatory compliance and Polymarket on blockchain technology.
Alongside first mover advantage, the two firms bet early on a bifurcated market and expertly calibrated their separate approaches to deliver maximum impact. It’s given them a consolidated hold on users that will be hard for potential new entrants to shake.
Can anyone hope to challenge them, or is it already too late?
A Duopoly Takes Hold
Prediction markets are a prize worth playing for. Foresight’s long-term outlook for the sector has it on track to eventually challenge the $300 billion global betting industry in combined handle. Total volumes were worth about $9 billion in 2024, leaping to $44 billion last year. Looking ahead, Forsights thinks the user base could triple or even quadruple to 15 million participants worldwide.
Naturally, lots of businesses want in, including iGaming platforms, stock brokerages, betting apps, and crypto exchanges. Many have deep pockets and a technical architecture that allows them to pivot fast. But it may already be too late.
Alice Li, Investment Partner at Foresight Ventures, told Techopedia that Kalshi and Polymarket have a lock on the current market, cumulatively owning 99%:
“There are no credible challengers today.”
Both platforms allow users to bet on outcomes arising from real-world events, from elections to sports, economic data prints to Hollywood gossip, turning even amateur takes on current affairs into tradable assets. The scope and breadth of potential contracts are huge, and both firms have done a good job casting their nets across the daily zeitgeist of diverse interests.
Foresight says sports-related contracts drive most of the current momentum, pulling in roughly 70% of trading activity. That’s not surprising, since sports betting is already a mature category and serves as an accessible entry point for novice bettors, as well as for retail investors seeking buzzy markets with high liquidity and repeat engagement.
Kalshi seized the opportunity first. Its August 2025 partnership with Robinhood saw it integrated directly into the trading giant’s app, offering NFL event contracts directly to a customer base of 27.4 million funded accounts.
That positioned it beyond crypto enthusiasts into mainstream consumer markets, propelling it ahead of Polymarket with an estimated 66% of the total market.
For now, Kalshi vs. Polymarket is the only fight worth watching. But what about startups and challengers from other sectors – can anyone hope to pry the duopoly apart?
Potential Opportunities
Li believes the biggest potential opportunities lie overseas. She told Techopedia:
“Outside North America, prediction markets are entering a meaningful opportunity window driven by regulatory asymmetries, unmet local demand, and underdeveloped competition. In many regions, frameworks are still forming, allowing early entrants to establish compliant models and shape local standards.”
The most promising strategy for local country entrants is to go deep. She said:
“Rather than compete on scale, successful platforms will focus on region-specific events, languages, and payment rails that global platforms struggle to serve. This includes sports leagues, elections, economic indicators, and climate-related risks that are locally relevant.”
In Li’s view, emerging markets also present a strong financial inclusion angle, where prediction markets can function as informal hedging tools for inflation, FX volatility, or even supply-chain risk – use cases often underserved by traditional finance.
Li added:
“Mobile-first distribution and integration with (local/regional) super-apps or payment platforms will likely be decisive.”
Polymarket & Kalshi Competitors: Is the US Market Unassailable?
Despite the apparently impregnable position Kalshi and Polymarket have established in North America, a number of competing services have launched in the past few months.
Crypto.com & Fanatics
In December, Crypto.com released a dual-branded prediction market platform with sports fashion firm Fanatics. It’s already branched out beyond the playing field, with betable outcomes available in politics and economics. A soon-to-launch second phase will offer contracts across a breadth of topics, including crypto and stock prices, climate and weather shifts, AI, and pop culture.
Gemini Titan
Another contender is crypto exchange Gemini, which secured a green light from the CFTC in December to operate a designated contract market service, setting the stage for the rollout of its event contracts platform Gemini Titan.
DraftKings
Meanwhile, sportsbook giant DraftKings has stepped onto the prediction markets field with a standalone prediction markets app available across the US, including jurisdictions where ‘pure’ online sports betting is illegal.
For any of these models to work, avoiding head-to-head competition with either of the two leaders will be essential.
Foresight’s Alice Li told Techopedia:
“Any viable US challenger would likely focus on narrow, high-value verticals such as enterprise decision-making, niche communities, or embedded research tools; rather than operating as a general-purpose event exchange. Others may position prediction functionality as research, surveys, or social interaction to avoid direct regulatory classification as gambling or derivatives.”
The Bottom Line
While the prediction market race may not be fully concluded, it’s more of a battle for third spot.
Kalshi and Polymarket have achieved something most startups aim for but rarely get: reach scale early and lock in liquidity. The sector has moved rapidly from a nascent phase to consolidation, where incumbents adapt in tandem with shifting regulation instead of waiting for it to harden.
– Mark De Wolf
Challengers could still emerge at the edges, perhaps in other regions or verticals, but punching through to the center feels like a stretch. In prediction markets, as in so many areas of business, the biggest bet isn’t about what the future looks like; it’s on how to arrive there first.
