Bettors on Polymarket now assign a 12% chance that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried will receive a pardon this year, following the recent pardon of Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.
In the “Who will Trump pardon in 2025” market, SBF’s odds surged from 5.6% to 12% within 12 hours, with over $6.5 million wagered, including $302,090 specifically on the convicted crypto executive.
Meanwhile, another market tracking whether SBF will be “Released from custody in 2025” saw odds climb from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling at 15.5%.
Although SBF has filed an appeal seeking to reduce his 25-year sentence, meaningful progress is unlikely before year-end, making a Trump pardon his most plausible route to early release.
CZ’s pardon has reignited debate over whether Sam Bankman-Fried should receive similar treatment, with many arguing he should not.
Industry experts highlight the stark contrast in their cases: CZ violated U.S. Anti-Money Laundering laws by allowing illicit funds to flow through Binance, while SBF was convicted of fraud and conspiracy to commit money laundering for misappropriating billions in customer funds. CZ received a four-month sentence, whereas SBF was sentenced to 25 years last year.
Crypto attorney Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if the Trump administration pardoned SBF, noting that SBF was a “Democratic mega-donor before FTX suddenly collapsed in November 2022.”
“His name is half punch line, half curse word in DC. Not a single serious person wants this,” Chervinsky added.
Sasha Hodder, founder of crypto law firm Hodder Law, emphasized that the seriousness of CZ’s actions pales in comparison to those of SBF or former Terraform Labs CEO Do Kwon.
“Unlike SBF or Do Kwon, CZ wasn’t accused of stealing user funds or defrauding customers. Binance functioned as a legitimate exchange, and withdrawals always worked. His ‘crime’ was compliance-related, not criminal in a moral sense,” Hodder said.
Regarding the pardon, Trump stated that he had been told CZ’s actions were “not even a crime” and that he was “persecuted by the Biden administration.”
CZ is also a major supporter of the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto platform.
