Congressman Ritchie Torres is advancing legislation aimed at prohibiting federal employees from participating in prediction markets involving government actions.
Six recently established cryptocurrency wallets generated approximately $1 million in profits on the Polymarket prediction platform by wagering that Washington would launch strikes against Iran before February 28, 2026 — with the bulk of these positions established just hours ahead of initial blast reports from Tehran.
Blockchain intelligence provider Bubblemaps identified the six accounts after detecting an unusual timing correlation. The accounts were predominantly established and capitalized within a 24-hour window preceding the military action, with all purchasing affirmative shares on the Polymarket question “US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?”
President Donald Trump announced “massive and ongoing” military strikes against Iran, designated as “Operation Epic Fury” by the Department of War. Israel participated alongside US forces in the operation.
The most profitable account acquired 560,680 affirmative shares at approximately 10.8 cents per unit, investing around $61,000. Upon contract settlement, the position yielded profits exceeding $493,000.
Another account operating under the name “Planktonbets” secured $173,907 across seven different prediction contracts. This wallet had previously placed smaller unsuccessful wagers on alternative strike dates, indicating multiple attempts to pinpoint the precise timing.
An account labeled “Dicedicedice” executed a solitary wager that generated $119,964 — representing a 400% gain. Meanwhile, “Neodbs” achieved the most impressive percentage return among identified wallets at 900%, converting $9,884 into approximately $89,000.
Two additional accounts, “nothingeverhappens911” and one unnamed wallet, secured $66,436 and $45,556 respectively. All six accounts have subsequently liquidated their entire positions.
Not all participants saw gains. A market participant identified as “anoin123” had accumulated over $2 million wagering against military strikes during preceding months. After the attacks materialized, this account suffered $6.5 million in losses within 24 hours, plummeting from $2 million in profits to a $4.5 million deficit, based on blockchain analytics from Lookonchain.
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman explained to The Block: “It’s almost impossible to be 100% certain in these cases, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing, it felt convincing enough to share.”
The entire series of “US strikes Iran” prediction contracts generated over $529 million in aggregate trading volume on Polymarket beginning in December 2025. The specific February 28 contract attracted approximately $90 million in activity.
This incident represents another episode where Polymarket confronts allegations of trading based on privileged information. During January, a newly created account wagered $32,000 on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s removal at 7 cents per share, securing over $400,000 before public announcement.
Earlier this month, Israeli authorities charged an IDF reservist alongside a civilian for purportedly exploiting classified military data to trade on Polymarket contracts related to Israel’s strike against Iran during the June 2025 Twelve-Day War. The defendants allegedly generated combined profits exceeding $150,000.
Mere days before the Iran military action, suspected insiders reportedly earned over $1 million through a Polymarket contract connected to a blockchain examination of cryptocurrency platform Axiom.
US Representative Ritchie Torres has proposed the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, legislation designed to prevent federal officials from trading prediction market contracts related to governmental policy using confidential information. Competing platform Kalshi has publicly supported the proposed legislation, with its chief executive noting that regulated prediction markets are prohibited from hosting war-related contracts.
