Prediction market traders on Polymarket are assigning just a 21% chance that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 this year, even as many analysts argue that the next major bull run may not arrive until 2026.
In the market titled “What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?”, Polymarket data shows a 45% probability of Bitcoin touching $120,000 — a level still below its all-time high.
Odds decline at higher price targets, with $130,000 priced at a 35% chance, $140,000 at 28%, and $150,000 at just 21%.
The most conservative wager traders appear comfortable with is Bitcoin reaching $100,000, which currently carries an 80% probability.
It’s unclear what’s driving such cautious sentiment among traders, but the apparent end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle may be a contributing factor, especially after BTC closed 2025 in the red.
The four-year cycle, a long-observed pattern tied to Bitcoin halving events, has historically helped analysts forecast price movements. With signs that this cycle may be breaking down, the market could be entering a new phase marked by different trading dynamics.
Despite the bearish probabilities reflected in prediction markets, many analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook. US President Donald Trump is expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair in the coming weeks, a move that could favor crypto markets if it leads to interest-rate cuts.
Expectations of looser monetary policy have already helped push traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and silver to fresh all-time highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as digital assets have largely traded sideways.
At the same time, major US crypto legislation — including the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act — is anticipated to deliver greater regulatory clarity, potentially paving the way for increased institutional participation.
Looking further ahead, analysts at firms such as Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein have forecast Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026. More bullish projections come from figures like Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who has suggested Bitcoin could climb to between $200,000 and $250,000.
