A Polymarket user turned a $33,000 bet into over $400,000, wagering that Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted before the month’s end.
One Polymarket user managed to turn roughly $32,000 into over $400,000 by betting on the ousting of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro before the end of the month.
The account, created in December, placed a bet valued at $32,537. After the United States invaded the country and seized Maduro, the player netted a whopping $436,759. Other winning bets made by the account included U.S. forces being in Venezuela by Jan. 31, the U.S. invading Venezuela by Jan. 31, and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by Jan. 31.”
It’s not possible to know who created the account, but the public bets have ignited discussions about possible insider trading.
What did Trump say about Maduro’s capture before military strike?
The U.S. captured Maduro on Saturday, Jan. 3 and brought him and his wife, Cilia Flores, to New York to face narco-terrorism and drug trafficking charges.
While President Donald Trump had previously said the leader’s days were “numbered,” no public declarations were made about when the U.S. might invade the country. Shortly after the operation, Secretary of State Marco Rubio thanked media outlets that had learned about the attack before Jan. 3 for not putting the mission in jeopardy by publishing stories about it.
“Frankly, a number of media outlets had gotten leaks that this was coming and held it for that very reason,” Rubio said while speaking on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, Jan. 4. “And we thank them for doing that, or lives could have been lost. American lives.”
The winning bets were made on Friday evening, Jan. 2, hours before the U.S. launched an attack on Venezuela. The account has already withdrawn the winnings to the cryptocurrency platform Solana, according to blockchain explorer PolygonScan.
USA TODAY contacted Polymarket for comment on Jan. 6, but has not received a response.
Alleged insider trading involving Trump’s administration has happened before
In October, an alleged Bitcoin whale reportedly tied to Trump’s family allegedly closed a Bitcoin short position worth more than $200 million after the president threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China, according to Yahoo Finance and Investing.com.
In April, Trump wrote on his Truth Social, telling followers: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT,” before announcing the country would be pausing tariff hikes, sending markets up.
A month later, ProPublica published a report detailing how numerous Trump officials sold stocks ahead of the president’s “Liberation Day” announcement.
Prediction markets are rising in popularity. Experts suggest the platforms could reach $1 trillion in trading by 2030.
On Polymarket, users can place bets on whether the market will go up or down, who will win Best Picture at the Oscars and even how many tornadoes will sweep across the country this month.
Polymarket withdrew from the U.S. market after a 2022 Commodity Futures Trading Commission enforcement action identified unregistered event contract activity, indicating that not all event contracts had allegedly been filed with or approved by a relevant regulatory body. The company was also ordered to pay a $1.4 million civil monetary penalty.
However, the commission approved a plan submitted by the company in November, allowing it to reenter the U.S. market.
“People rely on Polymarket because we provide clarity where there is confusion and accountability where there is ambiguity,” Shayne Coplan, founder and CEO of Polymarket, said in November. “This approval allows us to operate in a way that reflects the maturity and transparency that the U.S. regulatory framework demands. We’re grateful for the constructive engagement with the CFTC and look forward to continuing to demonstrate leadership as a regulated U.S. exchange.”
Michelle Del Rey is a trending news reporter at USA TODAY. Reach her at [email protected]
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