Prediction markets have grown increasingly bearish on Bitcoin following a weekend sell-off that briefly pushed prices below $75,000 on Monday.
On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 in 2026 rose to 72% on Monday, with nearly $1 million in trading volume. Other major wagers included bets on Bitcoin dropping below $55,000 and on the asset reclaiming $100,000 by year-end, with implied probabilities of 61% and 54%, respectively.
The rise in downside bets points to a shift in market sentiment, with prediction markets wiping out gains that followed President Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024.
The downturn also marked a notable moment for Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder, as Bitcoin slipped below the firm’s average purchase price for the first time since late 2023.
Bear market and liquidity pressures cited
Some analysts attribute the latest sell-off to a broader bearish trend in Bitcoin. CryptoQuant reiterated that the market has been in a bear phase since November 2025, when Bitcoin fell below its 365-day moving average.
“Don’t try to find bottoms after a new leg down,” CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said in a post on X on Saturday. “Bear market bottoms take months to form.”.
Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan said Bitcoin was not created to appreciate in price, describing price growth as a secondary outcome rather than its primary purpose.
“Its core use case is to offer a form of money that operates independently of governments and banks,” Greenspan wrote in a post on X on Monday.
Separately, Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal attributed the market downturn to tight U.S. liquidity conditions rather than crypto-specific issues.
A potential slide in Bitcoin below $65,000 this year would run counter to forecasts from several major investment firms and banks. Late last year, Grayscale Investments predicted Bitcoin could surpass its all-time high of $126,000 by June 2026, citing growing institutional demand and clearer U.S. regulatory conditions.
Standard Chartered and Bernstein have also projected Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, though both firms later trimmed earlier, more bullish targets amid slower-than-expected inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
The developments come as Polymarket faces mounting regulatory pressure, including a Nevada court order blocking its event contracts for operating as an unlicensed wagering platform. Other states, such as Tennessee, have also recently taken enforcement action against the platform.
