The decentralized betting platform has just raised $200m, achieving unicorn status… even though it is banned in the United States. With more than $3bn traded on the “Trump vs Harris” bet in 2024, Polymarket is establishing itself as the crypto barometer of global opinion — and as the bête noire of regulators. We discuss this in the Cryptic Analysis, after this week’s essential news.
Mastercard & Chainlink launch on-chain crypto purchases for 3 billion cards
Mastercard is partnering with Chainlink to enable its cardholders to purchase cryptocurrencies directly on the blockchain via apps compatible with decentralized finance (DeFi). The initiative is based on Chainlink standards and leverages zerohash (conversion), Shift4 (payments), and XSwap (liquidity). This fiat-to-crypto bridge is designed to provide a seamless and secure experience with simplified access to protocols such as Uniswap. The goal is to connect traditional finance to the on-chain world without compromising ease of use. Already active via Swapper Finance, this solution marks a turning point for Mastercard’s 3 billion users worldwide. It’s one step closer to the widespread integration of crypto into everyday life.
Circle went public in early June at $31 per share and skyrocketed to nearly $270 this week, propelling its valuation to $77bn. This meteoric rise was fueled by the passage of the GENIUS Act, which regulates stablecoins and classifies them as a means of payment. The legislation has reassured the markets, but some analysts are questioning the valuation multiples, which are considered excessive at over 150x EBITDA. Despite the doubts, Circle embodies the optimism surrounding regulated stablecoins, and its growth could continue if the use of USDC expands beyond crypto.
Texas creates the first state reserve in Bitcoin (BTC)
In a first for the United States, Texas is setting up a 100% Bitcoin strategic reserve, financed by public funds. Separate from the Treasury, this reserve will be managed by an independent committee and protected from budgetary fluctuations. The stated objectives are to protect the state against inflation and strengthen its financial resilience. It will also be able to receive donations in crypto or grow through airdrops. Only assets with a market capitalization of more than $500 billion are eligible — for now, this limits it to Bitcoin. This is a significant step toward institutional adoption of BTC at the local level.
Betting on the future: Polymarket raises $200m and becomes a unicorn… without the US
It’s one of the most fascinating paradoxes of the crypto web: Polymarket, the hottest decentralized betting platform of the moment, is now worth $1 billion… even though it’s banned to US users. As a reminder, Polymarket rose to global prominence during the 2024 US presidential campaign, pitting Donald Trump against Kamala Harris. The market on the outcome of the election recorded more than $3 billion in trades on the eve of the results. Since then, users have been able to bet on everything from politics and economics to sports and cultural events via a peer-to-peer platform based entirely on blockchain technology.
Typically, it is possible to bet on the Iran-Israel war, the US recession, the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, Fed decisions, or even the New York mayoral primary. The platform now has 1.2 million traders, 21,000 active markets, 20 million open positions, and $700 million in trading volume.
How does Polymarket work? A practical example with the Fed’s decision in July
Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcome of future events by purchasing shares at variable prices. These shares are priced in cents and reflect the perceived probability of an event occurring. A concrete example from the market: “Fed decision in July.”
Here are the available scenarios and their current prices:
This means that the market estimates an 83% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July. If you buy a share at 83 cents based on this scenario and it comes true, you receive $1, or 17 cents in profit. Conversely, if the scenario does not come true, you lose your stake.
Prices fluctuate in real time based on supply, demand, economic news, and statements from central banks. You can buy or sell your positions at any time until the market is finally settled.
Once the event is over, winning shares are paid out at $1. Losing shares are worthless. Polymarket thus functions as a probability-based stock market: the more likely a scenario is, the higher its price — and therefore the lower its potential return.
It is this dynamic pricing logic that makes Polymarket a real-time barometer of collective opinion on economic, political, or geopolitical events.
It is referred to as web-crypto because Polymarket is based on the Polygon blockchain (Ethereum Layer 2). All transactions — market creation, position taking, event resolution — are recorded in a decentralized manner. Users do not use traditional euros or dollars, but stablecoins, mainly USDC.
According to The Information, Founders Fund, Peter Thiel’s fund, is finalizing a fundraising round of more than $200m for Polymarket. This operation, which is still confidential, would propel the young startup to unicorn status, a status reserved for startups valued at over $1bn.
Last November, the platform recorded a transaction volume of $2.6bn, according to Bloomberg and The Block. This is an incredible performance for a service that is under regulatory pressure. Monthly transaction volume has risen for three consecutive months since March: +21% in April, then +17% in May, crossing the symbolic threshold of $1 billion traded per month for the first time this year.
But not everything is happening in the US. In January 2022, Polymarket was caught by the CFTC (the US futures market regulator), fined $1.4 million and banned from continuing its activities in the United States. As a result, most of the current volume is generated outside the US. The platform’s founder, Shayne Coplan, even had his devices seized by the FBI as part of an investigation into possible violations of this ban.
This situation adds to a growing blacklist: France, Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, Poland, Belgium… all countries where Polymarket is now blocked or restricted. The authorities in these countries consider it an illegal gambling service. The platform also faces accusations of manipulating betting results, raising concerns among regulators. But in all these countries, the ban remains easy to circumvent, for example through VPNs.
Despite this, Polymarket is enjoying growing global success. The company is seen as one of the best real-time barometers of public opinion. Further proof of its place in the digital future: X (formerly Twitter), Elon Musk’s social network, has just signed a partnership to make it its official predictive betting platform. The goal is to merge Grok’s AI with Polymarket’s prediction data to transform betting into a real-time analysis tool.
On the financing side, Polymarket is running at full speed. Its total combined financing — between the $45 million Series B in May 2024, an unannounced Series A round of $25 million led by General Catalyst, an attempt to raise $50 million in September, and the $200 million announced today — propels the platform far ahead of its main competitor, Kalshi, whose latest round of funding amounted to “only” $30 million.
Another strategic move in the pipeline is the launch of a native token, which could be used to settle bets and boost the ecosystem. This is an additional tool to strengthen the network effect, build user loyalty, and consolidate its position in a rapidly growing global market.
Behind the buzz lies a central dilemma: how to reconcile the appetite for innovation of crypto platforms with the US regulatory straitjacket? Polymarket is a symbol of this dilemma. Banned in the US but courted by the biggest investors, it could well become the global benchmark for decentralized predictive betting.
