Polkadot [DOT] has possessed a long-term bearish trend since March 2025. However, it has registered gains of 4.41% over the past week. This can be seen as good short-term performance, given the volatility around Bitcoin [BTC] and the fear prevalent across the crypto market.
At the time of writing, the weekly trend of Polkadot was firmly bearish. The bearish structure breaks (orange) have been ongoing since September. The weekly swing structure has been bearish since March.
The A/D indicator showed steady selling pressure, and the Awesome Oscillator highlighted bearish momentum. The imbalance (white box) at $2.5 could be revisited as a supply zone before the next bearish leg on this timeframe.
The 4-hour chart underlined a bullish trend shift over the past week. Two bullish structural breaks were seen when the previous lower highs at $1.75 and $1.85 (cyan) were breached.
The A/D indicator was climbing higher, and the Awesome Oscillator showed bullish momentum in recent days. It appeared likely that the current H4 uptrend could take DOT’s price to the psychological $2-resistance level, and possibly even the $2.5 weekly supply zone.
The $90k-resistance zone has been a stern opposition to Bitcoin bulls in recent weeks. Despite booming liquidity, BTC traders have reason to remain cautious. This means that altcoins such as Polkadot might have a tough time rallying due to the lack of sustained demand.
The H4 and lower timeframe momentum were bullish at press time. However, that does not mean the higher timeframe trend will reverse. Long-term buyers should be wary of the prevailing bounce.
Risk-averse traders can remain sidelined since the higher timeframe trend was bearish. The current H4 move looked likely to reach $2.11. The 30-day liquidation map underlined the heavy cumulative short liquidation leverage to the north.
This would be an attractive target for the price, since it gravitates towards liquidity. Traders can take profits at the $2.0-$2.1 area. A drop below $1.82 would be an invalidation of the long setup.
