The next weeks could decide the market’s future, as bitcoin trades above 117,000 dollars. Indeed, legendary trader Peter Brandt warns that the crypto queen approaches a pivotal moment, possibly a temporary peak. With over ten years of post-halving cycle analysis, he cautions against a scenario that could surprise even seasoned investors. This alert comes as some experts doubt the relevance of bitcoin’s historical cycle.
While we notice a massive outflow of capital from bitcoin in favor of Ethereum, Peter Brandt, a respected trading figure, stated on the social network X that “according to how I perceive the bitcoin cycles, from low to high with halving marking the midpoint (+/- one to two weeks), a tradable peak could occur within the next six weeks”.
This prediction fits into a context where bitcoin has experienced significant movements in recent weeks :
For Brandt, this time window could correspond to the last bullish phase before a significant pullback. His warning is based on a history of cycles where halving plays a pivotal role, often preceding a price acceleration followed by a pronounced correction.
Beyond the deadline set by Brandt, another debate stirs the community : that of the survival of the historical four-year cycle.
This model, widely accepted until now, predicted a strong post-halving increase, followed by a peak, then a 70 to 80 % correction, leading to a long period of significant crypto price decline. However, several recent signals suggest that this mechanism might weaken or even disappear.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, specifies that “the four-year cycle could be over, but for this to be official, bitcoin must perform well in 2026”. He attributes this possible break to the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, the changing profile of investors, and a more favorable regulatory environment.
If these factors change the market structure, the historical link between halving and price phases could lose its relevance, making predictions based on this pattern more uncertain.
The next six weeks will therefore be both a test for Peter Brandt’s forecast and for the robustness of the cyclical model that has guided many investment strategies. If the bitcoin price reaches a peak within the announced window, supporters of the traditional cycle will see confirmation. Otherwise, the market could well enter an era where other forces, institutional, regulatory or macroeconomic, take precedence over historical benchmarks.
