Some of Polymarket’s reported trading activity and volume may be significantly overstated due to a “data bug,” according to a researcher at Paradigm.
“Almost every major dashboard has been double-counting Polymarket volume that isn’t wash trading,” said Storm, a researcher at the firm.
He explained that the issue stems from Polymarket’s on-chain data, which includes redundant records for each trade, inflating reported totals.
“Polymarket’s onchain data is quite complex, and this has led to widespread adoption of flawed accounting methods.”
When a trade happens on Polymarket, the platform emits multiple “OrderFilled” events—one for the maker with an existing order and another for the taker who executes it.
These events reflect the same transaction from two viewpoints, not two separate trades. But many analytics dashboards have been merging them, effectively double-counting the volume.
Polymarket has recently been highlighted as a bright spot in an otherwise shaky crypto market, with spot and derivatives trading under pressure. The revelation that its headline volumes may be overstated across major dashboards could undercut some of that perceived success.
Polymarket’s messy blockchain data
Storm added that the bug “inflates both types of volume metrics commonly used in prediction markets—notional volume and cashflow volume.”
“Polymarket’s data has been notoriously confusing for crypto data analysts … the data has too many layers of interacting complexity to untangle using just a block explorer.”
This complexity stems from the fact that Polymarket trades aren’t always straightforward swaps—they can also involve “splits” and “merges,” where both sides trade cash for opposing positions.
According to the researcher, the platform’s smart contracts emit redundant tracking events for these actions, and most blockchain explorers don’t distinguish between them, making the data appear larger than it really is.
Polymarket is valued at $9 billion
The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) recently valued Polymarket at $9 billion, based on a reported $25 billion in trading volume—figures that may now be uncertain in light of Paradigm’s findings.
Reports in September suggested Polymarket was preparing for a U.S. launch at a $10 billion valuation, and by October, Bloomberg said the company was seeking new funding at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion.
Dune Analytics also reported a record $3.7 billion in monthly trading volume for November, but if Paradigm’s analysis is accurate, the true number may be closer to half that.
“DefiLlama, Allium, Blockworks, and many Dune dashboards were double-counting,” Storm noted.
He added that prediction markets are quickly becoming an important part of the financial landscape, and as the sector matures, the industry needs to adopt clear, consistent, and transparent reporting standards.
