The biggest issue seems to be trade uncertainty with China, along with the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown. Economic data still available, such as from the Philly Fed, reflect a modestly softer employment picture, but spending and generally economic activity appear stable. The Fed’s Beige Book report saw tariffs pushing inflation higher and that consumers are feeling the pinch, but that economic growth has changed little.
Yesterday, Trump agreed that we are in a trade war with China, which, if it heats up, will not be good news and lead to further market volatility. That said, dip buyers have been conditioned that bold tariff announcements present buying opportunities, and volatility should not be as dramatic as in the recent past.
Earnings continue to be almost all beats, both top and bottom. A key report today was Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM), the dominant manufacturer of leading-edge chips, which delivered solid beats top and bottom and raised its revenue forecast on the AI megatrend. The shares opened up 2% (+53.2% YTD) and then drifted into a slight loss.
United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) reported last night with a beat on the bottom and a small miss on the top. Their guidance was above Street estimates. United has been raising capacity, unlike other airlines, which have been more cautious. Like other airlines have reported, United is seeing more demand for first class and premium seats, especially on international travel, reflecting the strength of well-off consumers as well as business travel. The shares are down 3.3% on the revenue miss (+3.5% YTD).
Gold and silver continue their record run higher. Already in a technical overbought territory, now there are concerns about the ability to deliver the physical metal under contract, with borrowing costs soaring, particularly in silver, which is up over 12% in a week. Copper remains flat near $5/oz. Crude oil remains depressed, trading flat near $58.25/bbl. Natural gas is going sideways at $3/mcf where it’s been for almost a month.
Crypto is also going sideways with Bitcoin at $110.8K, near the low for the month, waiting for new regulatory approval for wider use, as well as hopes that crypto can be exempt from capital gains taxes so that it can be used more freely as a transactional currency.
The US Treasury market is essentially flat today, as are the bets on future Fed cuts. The US dollar index is drifting back to 98 after breaking above 99 just 2 days ago. It is interesting to note that credit spreads on corporate bonds, which have been at record lows, have taken a sharp move higher by several basis points on this week’s market volatility.
Growth and momentum names are leading. Earnings are very good so far, but we’re just getting started. Next week, we get 2 Magnificent 7 reports: Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday, and Amazon (AMZN) on Friday. The trend continues to be positive, with the Fed cut and the end of the government shutdown as near-term macro catalysts.
