^ Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE – from NuWays AG
08.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News – a service of EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY from: 08.08.2025 Target price: EUR 64.00 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q2 in line, guidance confirmed at upper end
ZEAL released solid Q2 results with sales and margin expansions despite a weaker jackpot environment. In detail:
Q2 sales grew by 24% yoy to EUR 50.4m in line with expectations (eNuW: EUR 50.6m), mainly driven by lottery sales (EUR 45.7m, +27% yoy) which benefitted particularly from the price increase imposed in July ’24 (ARPU: EUR 10.02, +15% yoy) and a higher lottery user base (MAUs: 1.52m, + 10% yoy). Mind you, these figures contain the positive effects from the new product “Traumhausverlosung” launched a year ago, which already contributed EUR 7-8m sales (eNuW) in H1 explaining 12pp of the H1 lottery sales growth of 34% yoy, whereas the remaining 22pp yoy sales growth stemmed from the classical lottery brokerage business.
“Traumhausverlosung” in high demand: ZEAL shared KPIs for all three draws since the launch, showing emerging trends. Monthly ABPU (average billings per user) ranges between EUR 20-22, reflecting solid spending. Although this figure is below that of classical lottery brokerage (EUR 58-60), the strong 43% billings margin, should lead to monthly ARPU (average revenue per user) for Traumhausverlosung between EUR 8.60 – 9.50 (eNuW), in line with traditional lottery brokerage (~EUR10). Monthly active users (MAUs) ranged from 410-470k for the first two draws (Q4’24 and Q1’25) but fell to 350k in the third (Q2’25). This decline likely reflects weaker cross-selling, as Q4’24 and Q1’25 benefited from exceptional jackpot-driven spillover to “Traumhausverlosung”. As a result, D2C billings (directly via traumhausverlosung.de) rose to 49% of total Traumhausverlosung billings in the third draw, up from 40% at launch.
Games also developed nicely with 43% yoy higher sales of EUR 3.3m in Q2 (eNuW: EUR 3.7m) on the back of a higher user base (+42% yoy), following the rapid expansion of the Games portfolio. However, this also implies that the ARPU at Games has saturated at an extremely high level (ARPU: EUR 40.90, -1% yoy, i.e. 4x that of the lottery business).
EBITDA margin expanded by 8.8pp yoy to 35% translating into EUR 17.6m EBITDA (eNuW: EUR 17.6m), on the back of operating leverage with OPEX only expanding by 10%. Particularly noteworthy is, that despite a weaker yoy jackpot environment in Q2, ZEAL increased marketing by 12% yoy to EUR 13.6m. This is the result of a ongoing shift towards brand awareness campaigns (not jackpot dependent) and away from jackpot dependent performance marketing. This strategy seems to pay off, as ZEAL acquired 252k new users in Q2, which is relatively high for a low-jackpot environment.
ZEAL reaffirmed its FY’25 guidance, with CFO Behrendt indicating the upper end is now more likely. Strong user inflow and continued demand for “Traumhausverlosung” support ou expectations of sequential sales growth in H2, placing us above the EUR 195-205m sales guidance (eNuW: EUR 212m). Ongoing hiring and the remaining marketing budget (EUR 29m spent in H1 vs. EUR60-70m FY’25 budget) should result in a figure only slightly above EUR 55-60m EBITDA guidance (eNuW: EUR60.5m).
Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 64.00, based on DCF.
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Contact for questions: NuWays AG – Equity Research Web: http://www.nuways-ag.com Email: [email protected] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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