Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE – from NuWays AG 16.12.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News – a service of EQS Group. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions. ————————————————————————— Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE Company Name: ZEAL Network SE ISIN: DE000ZEAL241 Reason for the research: Update Recommendation: BUY from: 16.12.2025 Target price: EUR 67.00 Target price on sight of: 12 months Last rating change: Analyst: Henry Wendisch No Q4 peak jackpot, expect EBITDA guidance beat * Jackpot situation does not allow for a Q4 peak jackpot. * Q4 sales estimate slightly lowered, but marketing expense even more * EBITDA guidance beat now likely Jackpot situation does not allow for a Q4 peak jackpot. With the EJ currently at EUR 22m (peak: EUR 120m, c. 10 more draws needed) and the Lotto 6/49 at EUR 31m (peak: EUR 50m, c. 5-8 more draws needed), neither the EJ nor Lotto 6/49 are able to reach a peak jackpot this year. Therefore, we adjust our Q4 estimates accordingly: Q4 sales estimate slightly lowered. Peak jackpots are the key driver of incremental user activity at ZEAL, which can be observed in higher number of monthly active users (MAUs). During Q3’25 (2x peak jackpot), the MAUs jumped 26% yoy to 1.69m (vs. 1.3m in Q3’24 with 0x peak jackpots). Now, with 0x peak jackpots in Q4’25e, we expect a sequential decline in user activity to 1.505m MAUs (implied average of 1.56m for FY’25e). Previously, we had expected a slightly higher activity rate of ZEAL’s customer base (eNuW old: 1.565m), which is why we lower our Q4 sales estimate to EUR 53m (eNuW old: EUR 55m) which nonetheless still implies a guidance reach at the top-end at EUR 215m (eNuW). Much less Q4 marketing spending now expected. With no peak jackpots in Q4, we also expect ZEAL to adjust Q4 marketing spending accordingly by 5m to EUR 15m (eNuW old: EUR 20m) which should yield a 33.5% Q4 EBITDA margin, in line with 9M of 33.3%. Against this backdrop, an EBITDA guidance beat seems likely now. With a Q4 EBITDA estimate of EUR 18m, we imply a FY’25e EBITDA of EUR 72m (eNuW old: EUR 68m), which is 6% above the upper guidance end. No more margin downside, only upside from jackpots. In the past, there was always a trade-off between profitability and growth, especially during peak jackpot phases. Now, with MAUs well above the 1.5m mark, ZEAL has reached critical mass and enough operating leverage, that the higher sales from the strong user activity overcompensate any additional marketing spending. Effectively, strong jackpot phases do not weigh on margins anymore, but actually increase profitability. This was already observed in the thus far unmachted Q4’24, where user activity skyrocketed and the EBITDA margin jumped to 40% (vs. c. 30% on average per quarter), despite a 275% yoy increase in marketing spending. Against this backdrop, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a slightly higher PT of EUR 67.00 (old EUR 66.00), based on DCF. You can download the research here: https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=9d795a2c767e299f11f2359098e75127 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG – Equity Research Web: http://www.nuways-ag.com Email: [email protected] LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++ ————————————————————————— The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. View original content: https://eqs-news.com/?origin_id=06781e24-da4e-11f0-be29-0694d9af22cf&lang=en ————————————————————————— 2246200 16.12.2025 CET/CEST
