Original-Research: tonies SE – from NuWays AG
14.11.2025 / 10:25 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE
Company Name:tonies SEISIN:LU2333563281 Reason for the research:UpdateRecommendation:BUYfrom:14.11.2025Target price:EUR 11.00Target price on sight of:12 monthsLast rating change:Analyst:Henry Wendisch
Strong TB2 traction and order timing drive strong Q3 results
Yesterday, tonies released a very strong Q3 trading statement, beating our regional and categorytopline estimates. In detail:
Group sales grew by 52% yoy to € 145m (eNuW: € 124m). Following the atypical, modest growthvisible in Q2 (+16% yoy vs. 33% in FY24 and 24% in Q1 ’25), the company has shown a strongmomentum recovery. Although we expected this recovery (eNuW: 30% yoy growth in Q3), the extent came as a positive surprise.
TB2 launch carried strong phase-in effects. In September, tonies launched the first iteration of itscore product, called the Toniebox 2 (TB2). Before that, Q2 saw a 12% yoy decline in sales fromTonieboxes, as retailers stopped ordering the TB1 and waited until Q3 to fill inventories withthe new TB2. At that time, the decline surprised the market, as the TB2 launch was communicatedonly after Q2 results. This led to strong phase-in effects and Toniebox sales increased by astaggering 59% yoy to € 40m (eNuW: € 35m). Moreover, management also highlighted that asubstantial part of the strong performance stems from upgrades, where existing TB1 ownerspurchased the new TB2. Mind you, the launch of TB2 (for end customers) started on Sept. 15, 2025in DACH, whereas US and ROW roll-out began on 5th October and thus in Q4.
Revenue growth in DACH climbed back to old levels, with sales growing by 45% yoy to € 61m (eNuW: € 54m), mostly due to the phase-in effects mentioned above. North America also experienced a strong sales growth of 47% yoy to € 54m (eNuW: € 45m), followed by RoW, which delivered a remarkable 83% yoy growth to € 30m (eNuW: € 28m).
Figurines grew driven by TB2 and new launches. Given that Tonies figurines are usually bought inparallel to a Toniebox purchase, Tonies figurines sales surged 48% yoy to € 99m (eNuW: € 85m),also carried by robust uptake of recent releases, including My First Tonies,Tonieplay, and the US best-seller Ms. Rachel Tonie. Mind you, Tonies figurines make up ~70% of sales and carrystructurally higher margins than the boxes.
tonies set to reach guidance if a strong Q4 follows. Management expects another record quarterin Q4, which typically makes up ~50% of FY revenues. Based on our Q4 estimate of € 276m (+16%yoy), we expect FY ’25 sales of € 598m, slightly below the “more than € 600m sales” guidance target. Firstly, we factor in some EUR/USD FX-headwinds (guidance is in constant currency) andsecondly expect some demand to have pre-shifted into Q3, which would usually materialize in Q4during the holiday season. Nevertheless, we regard the TB2 as a very potent product and wouldnot rule out an estimate beat on the upcoming Christmas season.
Overall, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment case, supported by the high revenue potential stemming from the new product family, and the proven profitability of tonies’ businessmodel, which should increase as the company scales internationally. Therefore, we reiterate our BUYrating, and keep our PT unchanged at € 11.00, based on DCF
You can download the research here: 251114tonies
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NuWays AG – Equity Research
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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