Original-Research: tonies SE – from NuWays AG
15.12.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE
Company Name:tonies SEISIN:LU2333563281 Reason for the research:UpdateRecommendation:BUYfrom:15.12.2025Target price:EUR 13.00Target price on sight of:12 monthsLast rating change:Analyst:Henry Wendisch
TB2 boxes out the bears; chg. est & PT
During Q3 ’25, Tonies launched the Toniebox 2 (TB2), marking its most significant innovation sincethe original Toniebox (TB1) in 2016. With this report, we highlight how TB2 secures additional growthpotential to this already upbeat investment case:
The TB2 effectively substantiialy increases the adressable market to 1-9 year olds (prev. 3-7year olds) by adding the interactive play format “Tonieplay”, especially relevant for the age group 5-9and also introduced “My First Tonies”, a line of figurines designed for children aged one or older.Besides that, notable hardware upgrades, further content partnerships and likely higher usernumbers, should lay the foundation for a strong demand, which is visible already.
Unmatched competitive position. Being the first mover and effectively the inventor of a completelynew toy category has turned tonies into the category leader of screen-free entertainment for kidswith the largest customer base worldwide. tonies unique ecosystem creates strong lock-in effects , where kids want to expand their beloved figurines collection that leads to higher engagementrates. On the partner side, tonies is the go-to content platform for global licensors (e.g. Disney,PawPatrol, Hasbro, Pokémon), given its large worldwide installed base and broad reach.
Next to growth from product innovations, tonies has ample growth from internationalization andmarket roll-outs ahead. Especially in the US (currently c. 10% market penetration, far below DACH levels of c. 50%), tonies should be able to more than double sales to € 473m by FY’28e (eNuW).This should be driven by rising demand from retailers and expanding visibility at their stores aswell as strong customer awareness due to an exceptionally high NPS of 77. Next to the US andDACH, tonies’
data-driven approach allows it to make expansion decisions based on alreadyknown customer insights. Therefore, we expect similarly or even stronger growth profile in thesegment ROW, where segment sales are expected to grow at a 41% CAGR to reach € 308m inFY’28e (eNuW).
DACH serves as a blue-print (23.1% EBITDA margin in FY’24) for profitability. North America (2.5% EBITDA margin in FY’24) and ROW (2.6% EBITDA margin in FY’24) should converge to DACH’smargin profile in the long-run, however only after the cost intensive expansion is less pronouncedand sufficient scale is reached.
With rising group margins, improving WC dynamics and a capital-light set up, tonies transitionsever more into a cash generative company.
Hence, we expect FCFs to expand from mostlynegative territory in the past to € 61m by FY’28e. Going forward, the upcoming CMD in Q2’26 (nodate announced yet) should deliver further insights into its mid-term growth outlook andmanagement’s planned use of future FCFs.
Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY rating and increase our DCF-based PT to € 13.00 (old: € 11.00) as the TB2 launch provides more confidence on tonies overall growth and margin trajectory.
You can download the research here: tonies-se-2025-12-15-multipager-en-1cc63
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG – Equity Research
Email: [email protected]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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