02.02.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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2025 should come in solid, but momentum has likely been capped by an
unfavourable mix (below-normal performance fees, real-estate restructuring
and softer interest income). With these drags fading and comps getting
easier, 2026 should be the year where MLP’s underlying growth run-rate
becomes more visible again. The improving setup is backed by a diversified
advice platform and a large recurring revenue base (c.68% of sales), all
supporting our BUY recommendation.
Looking at Q4 25, sales are expected to increase 2.4% yoy to EUR 298m (eCons:
EUR 316m) supported by ongoing strength in wealth management (eNuW: +8% yoy
before performance fees) and with P&C insurance premium volumes expected to
grow steadily at c. 8% yoy. Notably, the increasing use of AI positions MLP
as a pioneer in automated claims handling in P&C, delivering tangible
benefits across stakeholders: customers benefit from significantly faster
claims processing (end-to-end settlement possible within minutes), MLP
consultants from improved service quality backed by centralised
capabilities, and MLP itself from a leaner cost base following the
termination of an external call centre and lower personnel requirements
(previously directed at these tasks).
Despite weakening mix-effects, Q4 25 adj. EBIT looks set to rise 18% yoy to
EUR 33.9m, with the underlying margin seen to expand 1.6pp yoy. The
improvement is driven by efficiency gains across personnel (eNuW: -1.3% yoy)
and other operating expenses that largely reflect IT and consulting (eNuW:
-7.3% yoy), in line with Q3 trends. The adjustment to EBIT reflects an
expected EUR 8m in goodwill impairments, following MLP’s decision to abandon
new real estate development projects (another EUR 4m of goodwill are at risk,
well highlighted by MLP, in our view).
Into 2026, momentum should improve, led by P&C insurance, where strong
current trends and a seasonally important Q1 provide early visibility. In
addition, growing deposits at stable ECB rates should support interest
income and, separately, performance fees should slowly trend towards their
historical avg. of c. EUR 25m (vs. EUR 7m in 2025, eNuW). All, while EBIT
margins are set to expand as incremental margins remain high (eNuW: c. 28%
2025e to 2026e), underpinning our confidence in the group’s mid-term targets
(eNuW: adj. EBIT CAGR of 15% 2025-28e).
Lastly, MLP offers an attractive dividend yield of c. 5%, well covered by
its cash generation (FCF in 2025e: EUR 65m, eNuW). This provides downside
support as earnings visibility improves into 2026e.
BUY, PT EUR 12.00 (old: EUR 12.50), based on Residual Income.
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