Alaskans have been here before. Many times.
Every decade for the last 40 years, someone new has picked up the torch to sell Alaskans the fantasy of a natural gas pipeline. And every decade, the torch has burned out.
The 1980s, high hopes, low math.
The 1990s, price crashes and paper pipelines.
The 2000s, the AGIA era.
The 2010s, the “we’ll just build it ourselves” phase.
Now in 2025, another Alaska natural gas pipeline is once again “closer than ever.” Another developer has signed preliminary agreements. Another governor has declared it transformative. Another press conference has assured us that momentum is building, shovels are nearly in the ground and skeptics simply lack vision.
And yet, here we are again, long on adjectives, short on commitments.
The latest round of headlines around the Alaska LNG project follows a familiar script. We are told that agreements have been signed, that investors are interested, that timelines are firm and that final investment decisions are “imminent.” We are also told, quietly, usually after the applause, that none of these agreements are binding, that cost estimates are confidential and that financing is still theoretical.
This is not progress. This is marketing.
An Alaska LNG pipeline would be the most expensive oil and gas project in the history of the United States. A project of this scale will not advance on optimism alone. It will advance on execution measured not in speeches or press releases, but in clear, verifiable key performance indicators that demonstrate real movement toward reality.
Right now, Alaska LNG has very few.
Consider what Alaskans still don’t have. We don’t have take-or-pay contracts from gas buyers. We don’t have a disclosed project cost. We don’t have secured debt or equity commitments. We don’t have a final investment decision. We don’t have transparency around the tax and royalty concessions contemplated. In short, Alaskans don’t have any of the things they need in order to guarantee a $60 billion pipeline.
What we do have is a steady drumbeat of announcements from an outside firm designed to create the appearance of inevitability. Even though for the last few years on these very pages, some of the most knowledgeable voices on the economics of an Alaska natural gas pipeline have been running out of ways to tell Alaskans that this pipeline project is a fairy tale.
If the Alaska LNG pipeline is truly viable, it should be able to withstand daylight. If it is truly investable, it should be measured the same way serious investors measure every other multibillion-dollar project, against milestones, deadlines and binding commitments.
Key performance indicators for a project of this scale are not complicated. Has a final investment decision been reached, yes or no? Are there executed gas sales agreements with enforceable penalties, yes or no? Is financing secured, equity and debt identified, priced and committed, yes or no? Are costs disclosed within a defensible range, yes or no? Are construction contracts binding or conditional, yes or no?
Until those answers are “yes,” claims of inevitability are premature.
Alaska has a long history of chasing megaprojects fueled by hope rather than discipline. Each time, the public is told that this one is different, that the stars are aligned, that global markets and national security demand action now. Each time, the hard questions are deferred until later.
If Alaska is being asked to reduce taxes for decades, invest public capital or accept lower long-term revenues, then Alaskans deserve to see the math. Not someday. Now. Before the commitments are made, not after.
The Trans-Alaska Pipeline was not built on press releases. It was built because capital showed up, contracts were signed and global risks were priced. Until Alaska LNG can show measurable progress instead of rhetorical momentum, we should stop applauding announcements and start demanding metrics.
Press releases don’t build pipelines. Accountability does.
Alaskans should insist on nothing less after four decades of Alaska LNG pipeline hide and seek.
Andrew Halcro is a lifelong Alaskan, former Republican state legislator and host of the podcast “With All Due Respect.”
The Anchorage Daily News welcomes a broad range of viewpoints. To submit a piece for consideration, email commentary(at)adn.com. Send submissions shorter than 200 words to [email protected] or click here to submit via any web browser. Read our full guidelines for letters and commentaries here.
Read more on Anchorage Daily News
