It does not look as though the political parties will serve as an effective instrument to tie candidates to policies for the due voters influence on specific policy issues in respect of the 2007 general elections. More so, party manifestoes which served as the policy contract between the party and the electorate are nowadays symbolic documents with little enforcement after election.
Consequently, our experiences in the polity have seen candidates abandon policy promises and disavow party platforms after election. Therefore political parties now simply serve only as a platform for power grabbing and not a vehicle to policy implementation.
This situation weakens political parties at policymaking and implementation such that, the desired quality of good governance becomes elusive, especially, for the lack of ideology within the political system and the resultant outcome of the parties becoming subservient to the executive leadership of government, worsened by the lack of its internal democracy and the erosion of public trust as well as the general state of indiscipline of its membership as seen with the prevalent anti-party activities and high spate of prominent defectors. More so, it is a “party capture” by political “interest-leaders” whose personal ambitions now take the place of a party’s manifestoes.
Sadly, attachment to party for the 2027 general elections is with reference to ethnic, religious and social class factors, that tend to distinguish us from one another which determine our political alignments and allegiances, rather than the Nigerian state. Sectoral groups have sub-national loyalties existing within the super-structure of Nigeria.
Added to these are known activities of the so-called educated elites who are seen to have become champions of dis-unity by mobilizing ignorant members of their ethnic groups to achieve selfish gain. Then, there is the perceivable educational imbalance between the North and South that has always led to the fears of regional domination and political cleavage in determining policy interest with the resultant political conflict, other than, for policy implementation to suit varying local needs.
While we have seen a general decline in voters participation at the polls so far, nevertheless, significantly, voters influence on policy issues depends on how campaign issues are formulated, how candidates are tied or not to policy promises and the voter’s awareness of these policies, other than, what obtains within our party system which vaguely, ties candidates to policies to provide the answers for voters to exert a general influence on policy by supporting candidates of the party whose policy inclinations and commitment are attractive to them.
Thus, with voters drawn to party or candidates other than by its policies, many voters are known to vote on the basis of the diffused judgment of the candidate in looking out for a “good man” or one who is colourful while having mis-perceived the candidates and party positions, they are most likely to vote the wrong candidate or party whose commitment to policy issues often times is ambiguous, especially for incorrectly ascertaining voters preferences.
Presently, political analysts agree that almost 80% of voters believe Nigeria is at the cross-road to make or mar its democratic journey, over the 2027 general election ahead of us, and that less than half the registered voters for the said elections are unlikely to vote while more than half of the actual voters may not be concerned about policy issues. Therefore, policy issues for votes is generally considered negligible. This erodes public trust in the party system. Moreover, the parties are seen to direct voters choices as the party controls the selection of candidates whom the people did not nominate and with the said selection of candidates known to be far from being a democratic process. This is more worrisome if we must appreciate the fact that democratic governance should continue to feel the impact of public opinion to which it owes its being for its policy value or goal to the citizens.
It is on this note that we can justify that as political parties compete for votes ahead of the 2027 general election they must pay adequate attention to the policy preferences that appeal to a majority of the citizens. Therefore, a winner party should go further than policy preference that is of major concern to the generality such as for law and order, honesty in government, employment and economic wellbeing to find out the specific policy needs in providing what exactly the party thinks the citizens want to excel at the polls. Relatively said, is that given the fears of citizens sacrifices, parties during the 2023 general elections could have offered various versions of their implementation of the “fuel subsidy withdrawal” policy, but they could not afford to, so long as it was clear that a majority would not support the policy, despite the common acknowledgement by the contending parties of the fuel subsidy’s adverse impact on the economy.
To this end, President Bola Tinubu in his recent statement to Nigerians, tended to assuage citizens’ dis-satisfaction over what his government had accomplished given his acknowledgement of the pains encountered due to his government’s policies on oil subsidy removal, tax reforms and the exchange rate unification in which he explained were meant to cure our debilitating economy while promising we will realize a not far fetch comfortable future given a better secured and thriving economy as a welcome relief for our patience through this trying period.
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Another challenge ahead of 2027 is the wave of prominent defections, with elected representatives and political stalwarts alike changing political camps, as seen concerning Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State with his move from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) which had governed the state since the return to democracy to the All Progressive Congress (APC) as his reasoned solution for the realization of the Ibom Deep Seaport in the state and as a policy value of his ARISE agenda for the development of the State – and show the Akwa Ibom people how their alignment with the ruling APC achieves this value or goal which puts a stamp of approval to his defection, termed: a “Progressive Movement”.
Cynics believe that the said “Progressive Movement” ideology in the state is to defend the defection even if it’s a mistaken belief to join the ruling party as a guarantee of the Federal Government’s said support for the Deep Seaport in the state and to accept this is only a euphemistic way of saying that, “if you can’t beat them, join them” and which as alleged is for the “safe landing” of the political leadership in the state ahead of 2027 to power with least opposition. Interestingly, the wave of defections is replicated elsewhere, as noted with other states across the political spectrum, to reconcile conflict or generate agreed upon policies that never the less may not work as equally alleged.
Additionally, we find a policy criterion to promote inter-regional integration and development which wins more votes to favour the wishes of the minorities concerning the Lagos-Calabar Highway road project which is to be pivotal for regional economic prosperity and that it assuages the indigenes of the feelings of being peripheral to Nigeria, making room for the project to satisfy the said minorities, rather than endorse the wishes of a said inattentive majority whose idea for an alternative use of the project’s funds lacks the intensity of the voters specific preference for its policy value.
Therefore, being that the minority group knows what the ruling party stands for, they will vote accordingly but the majority may do neither. This situation provides for the possibility of intense minorities achieving influence over policy with gaining their responsiveness to deliver swing votes, especially due to a feeling of the general dis-satisfaction by one’s usual party to satisfy specific policy interest.
In effect, such voters are most likely to be useful to win at the polls, in that, the 2027 general election is most likely to be considered as a referendum on specific policy issues at stake which is to be decided upon by the citizens as voters for reasons more because of the effects of the policies than because of the policies themselves.
Lest we forget, it has been noted by political philosophers such as Hans Delbruck, that “it is not the election which enables the people to assert themselves but the fact that the governing party must keep in touch with the people”. We saw this point invariably play out as many voters in the 2023 Presidential campaign joined in sacking the PDP because they reacted against the Boko Haram insurgency and the general insecurity issues; some appearance of a weakening naira, the problem of unemployment and the political corruption. Thus, without quite knowing what specific policy inclination the Buhari-led APC would initiate, voters choose a newly formed party. as a “fresh slate”.
All said, one may add that a repeat of the above incident in the polity is not impossible especially, given a scrutiny of the ruling party, even if as partisan analysis that could be sometimes successful with some non-rational and irrational indoctrination.
While one may not be short of being labelled a political philosopher historian, who as could be said of historians have their heads backwards, never the less, there are issues of our experiences which have always shown institutional distrust, dehumanizing rhetoric and social media acceleration by competing parties to settle differences on policies against the need for caution with critics making a “major vulnerability” as observed on the tendencies to go beyond issue-based criticisms on policy to attack the personal integrity of political leaders and permitting a rhetoric of intrangancies to exacerbate conflict among citizens and leaders with escalating the range of disagreement on policy.
Again and sadly, is that, though there are cases of policy failures that seemingly define the characteristics of our political systemic outlook to policy making and implementation for its outcomes – a thread running from “Green Revolution”, National Grid Electric Power Decentralization, “Housing for All”, Vision 2020, SURE-P, TraderMoni and to policy concerning insecurity for which in all, we are likely to become desensitized on policy values for purposeful governance given a climate of little citizen influence in policy making and of poorly informed and happenstance influence. It is against this backdrop that one will consider that, until the political leadership can provide the prove of their capabilities and capacity to excel on policy making and implementation to the degree that the parties do correctly ascertain voters preferences to succeed in making offers to voters, will therefore the voters confidence be fully engaged in voting to make their choices, and rightly among competing parties for common good, else, as someone just said “a breakdown in trust between the electorate and the parties is the undercard challenge in the polity and does great damage both to citizens and the parties’ ability to convince voters they are not full of shit”.
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