Even though SPX and Bitcoin are at macro life-cycle top trends, it appears there is panic buying on the potential threat of impending inflation. Institutional ETFs, 401K crypto investments, and negative dollar sentiment may be giving rise to weakening of the dollar.
Simultaneously, the Trump administration and the Fed appear to be attempting to head off a potential recession by trying to stimulate growth via quantitative easing. Long-term, this will contribute to a much sharper collapse, but it appears the financiers are keeping us in line with the traditional 4 year cycle and driving equities and crypto against massive selling at legacy market tops.
It will be quite a ride so expect massive volatility until .96 breaks down or the current bottom trend since 2008 is regained. I have the determinant factors for bull or bear clearly delineated to offer a clear picture to those who are feeling confused about overall market direction. If the weekly stochastic RSI does cross downward and we confirm below .96, the market rally will continue in line with the standard 4 year cycle and should see the bear arriving in early 2026 unless DXY 17 year bottom trend is regained and recession abruptly cuts off the cycle.
