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Reading: Oil rises amid fading chance of US attack on Iran
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Market Analysis

Oil rises amid fading chance of US attack on Iran

Last updated: January 19, 2026 12:25 pm
Published: 3 months ago
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Oil prices were up slightly on Monday, after the previous session’s rise, as Iran’s deadly crackdown on protests quelled civil unrest, narrowing chances for a US attack on the major Middle Eastern producer that could disrupt supplies.

Brent crude was trading at $64.19 a barrel by 3.27am GMT, up 6c, or 0.09%.

US West Texas Intermediate for February rose 9c, or 0.15%, to $59.53 a barrel. That contract expires on Tuesday and the more active March contract was at $59.39, up 5c, or 0.08%.

Iran’s violent crackdown on protests spurred by economic hardship, which officials say killed 5,000 people, quelled the unrest.

US President Donald Trump seemed to step back from his earlier threats of intervention, saying on social media Iran had called off mass hangings of protesters, though the country had not announced any such plans.

That appeared to lower the odds of a US intervention that could have disrupted oil flows from the fourth-largest producer among oil cartel Opec.

The downturn signalled a renewed retreat from multimonth highs reached last week, though prices still settled higher on Friday. The US military move to the Gulf underscores continued concern, however.

“The pullback followed a swift unwind of the ‘Iran premium’ that had driven prices to 12-week highs, triggered by signs of easing in Iran’s crackdown on protesters,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.

That was accentuated by US inventory data showing a substantial crude build and reinforcing bearish supply pressures, he said.

US markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr Day.

Crude stocks were up by 3.4-million barrels in the week ended January 9, the Energy Information Administration said last week, versus analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.7 million-barrel draw.

Markets are closely watching plans for Venezuela’s oilfields, after Trump said the US would run its oil industry after the capture of Nicolas Maduro.

The US is moving as fast as possible to grant Chevron an expanded production licence in the country, the US energy secretary told Reuters on Friday.

But markets were less confident about the prospects for scaled-up Venezuelan production.

“Venezuela and Ukraine remain on the back burner,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

“Expect range-bound movement for the rest of the day, with US markets closed.”

China’s refinery throughput in 2025 rose 4.1% year on year, while crude oil output grew 1.5% from 2024, with both reaching record highs, government data showed on Monday.

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