(Bloomberg) — Oil fell after its biggest weekly drop since end-June before a meeting between the US and Russian leaders on Friday, which is raising the prospect of an end to the war in Ukraine and more supply.
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Brent traded near $66 a barrel, after sliding 4.4% last week, while West Texas Intermediate was above $63. President Donald Trump didn’t reveal additional sanctions on Russia, or tariffs on buyers of its energy, as he announced the summit in Alaska, despite having declared an Aug. 8 deadline for the Kremlin to agree to a ceasefire.
US and Russian officials are working toward an agreement that would lock in Moscow’s occupation of territory seized during its military invasion, according to people familiar with the matter. The US is working to get buy-in from Ukraine and its European allies on the deal, which is far from certain, they said.
Oil has lost more than 10% this year as OPEC+ brings back production faster than initially planned, bringing to an end curbs made in 2023, even as slowing economic growth threatens to cut consumption. A peace deal with Ukraine could see an end to sanctions on supply from Russia, potentially exacerbating a glut forecast for later in the year.
“Crafting an agreement is going to be extremely difficult,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon research at Westpac Banking Corp. “Assuming we can eventually resolve this situation, the path for Brent is down below $65 with risks we may see sub-$60” late in the fourth quarter, he said.
Investors may get further insight into the supply-demand balance later this week, with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries set to release its monthly market analysis and the US Energy Information Administration its Short-Term Energy Outlook on Tuesday. The International Energy Agency is due to publish its monthly report on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Ukraine said it made a successful drone strike early Sunday on a major refinery in the Saratov region, the latest in a series of attacks this month on Russian oil facilities.
