Crude oil, cryptocurrencies and gold all posted notable moves at the start of the week, reflecting a combination of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy expectations and regional political uncertainty, according to Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial.
Crude Oil
Valecha said crude prices fluctuated between $1 and $2 on Monday before closing slightly higher, with WTI gaining 0.65% and Brent rising 0.86%. The recovery extended into Tuesday’s Asian session, where both benchmarks added around 0.5%.
The rebound comes after OPEC announced a modest October output hike of 137,000 barrels per day, down from increases of more than half a million in prior months. “Saudi Arabia is seeking to regain market share, but the smaller hike underscores a cautious approach as the market edges toward surplus,” Valecha noted. Rising geopolitical strains, including threats of tougher US sanctions on Russia, could further disrupt supply. Meanwhile, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, following weak US jobs data, may lend support to demand.
From a technical perspective, Valecha said WTI has moved above its 9-SMA on the 4-hour chart, suggesting a short-term bullish structure, with resistance near $64.10. For Brent, resistance stands around $67.47.
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin rose 1.63% over the past week to trade near $112,026, while Ethereum slipped 1.7% to around $4,312. Valecha described September as “a defining month” for crypto, supported by expectations of US rate cuts, new stablecoin liquidity and continued institutional buying.
On the regulatory front, he highlighted signs of market maturity, with the SEC easing compliance rules and Nasdaq preparing to launch tokenised securities. However, Bitcoin remains in consolidation mode. “A softer US inflation revision could trigger a relief rally above $113,000, with support at $110,400,” Valecha said. Without clear macro catalysts, BTC may remain range-bound in the near term, he added, even as altcoins like Dogecoin post sharp gains.
Gold
Gold edged up 0.34% to trade at $3,647, supported by expectations of rate cuts and political instability in Japan and France. Valecha pointed to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation and the collapse of France’s government as factors fuelling safe-haven demand.
Technically, gold broke out of a bull flag pattern on September 8 and is trading strongly above $3,635 support. Valecha said near-term targets are $3,660 and $3,695.
In the UAE, gold prices stood at AED 440.50 for 24-carat, AED 408.00 for 22-carat, AED 391.00 for 21-carat and AED 335.00 for 18-carat.
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