“Hope of an imminent US-China trade deal is a plus for economic and oil-demand sentiment — it is layering in top of the Russia risk premium this morning,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Singapore-based market analysis firm Vanda Insights. “But I expect the backdrop of excess supply will limit gains. Brent may return to its previous comfort zone in the high-$60s.”
The US administration’s plan in sanctioning Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, part of broader efforts to force an end to the war in Ukraine, is to make Russia’s trade harder, costlier, and riskier — but without forcing a sudden supply shock that might spike global prices, according to officials familiar with the matter. Thus far, refiners in India have said they expect flows to fall to near zero, while processors in China paused some buying.
