No matter how many times you have watched the market, days like this still get your attention. Nvidia (NVDA) heads into its quarterly earnings this week riding a groundswell of excitement, but it is not just about a single report. Between headline-grabbing product launches like Jetson AGX Thor and Blackwell Ultra, and a rush of enterprise clients, including Disney, SAP, and TSMC, Nvidia is hitting the news cycle again and again. Now, with major alliances such as Broadcom and VMware and new robotics partnerships on the table, investors are left wondering just how much farther this story can run.
The market has responded. Nvidia shares are up over 41% in the past year and have climbed 35% over the past three months, trouncing the broader market. Momentum continues to build around all things AI, and Nvidia’s position at the center of this trade appears only stronger. Still, China-related export restrictions and the emergence of domestic competitors overseas have created bumps in the road, though recent strategic wins and partnerships seem to reassure many that demand is resilient.
This leads to the core question: after a year of remarkable expansion, are investors looking at a genuine buying opportunity, or has the stock already priced in all of that future AI growth?
According to KiwiInvest, the latest community narrative suggests that Nvidia is currently trading above its fair value by nearly 7% based on strong opinions about its revenue trajectory and AI dominance.
At $400b annual revenue, Nvidia and its partners (particularly TSMC and ASML) can continue innovating at a pace that encourages data centre customers to keep purchasing the latest products. In five years time, Nvidia is expected to be selling a Blackwell successor that offers enough improvements over Blackwell for data centres to consider upgrading, even if their existing Blackwell racks are still functioning well.
Does this sound ambitious? The thesis relies on Nvidia’s persistent advancement in AI hardware, but the core differences lie in the assumptions about future demand and ongoing competitive strength. Curious about what distinguishes this valuation from others? Explore the key factors influencing this market perspective.
Result: Fair Value of $170.26 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, ongoing advances by competitors and shifting global regulations could quickly disrupt Nvidia’s momentum. This could change the growth outlook faster than expected.
