Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says it would take a near “planetary alignment” for Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by year’s end.
Despite growing confidence among some crypto executives who have reaffirmed their $250K forecasts, Novogratz struck a more cautious tone.
“With just two and a half months left in the year, that kind of move would need something crazy to happen,” he told CNBC on Wednesday.
“There would have to be a heck of a lot of crazy stuff to really get that kind of momentum.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $107,649, according to CoinMarketCap — meaning it would need to rally roughly 133% over the next 10 weeks to reach $250,000.
Novogratz: Bitcoin should hold $100,000
Novogratz said that even in a worst-case scenario, Bitcoin is likely to “hold” around the $100,000 mark — a key psychological level it first surpassed in December 2024, shortly after Donald Trump’s reelection as U.S. president.
He added that $100,000, or “somewhere close to that,” should represent Bitcoin’s downside limit.
Bitcoin nearly revisited that level recently after markets plunged on Oct. 10 to $102,000, following Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China.
“On the upside, things don’t really pick up until Bitcoin breaks above $125,000,” Novogratz said, referencing the cryptocurrency’s recent all-time high of $125,100 on Oct. 5. He added:
“So the most likely outlook is we’re rangy between 100 and 120 or 125, unless we take out the top side.”
Novogratz suggested that a few catalysts could help Bitcoin break past its all-time high again — such as Trump attempting to “prematurely” influence the Federal Reserve, or if the long-awaited crypto market structure legislation, the CLARITY Act, passes before the end of the year.
“Those are the two catalysts I’m watching,” Novogratz said. The broader crypto market has been closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s moves on interest rates, which many view as a bullish driver for Bitcoin following the Fed’s first rate cut of the year in September.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there’s a 96.7% chance the Fed will cut rates again at its upcoming meeting on Oct. 29.
Some analysts say year-end price targets don’t matter
While some crypto executives remain optimistic that Bitcoin could still reach $250,000 before year-end, others aren’t focused on the short-term price.
On the Bankless podcast earlier this month, BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reiterated their confidence that Bitcoin could climb to between $200,000 and $250,000 by the end of the year — a forecast they’ve maintained for much of 2025.
However, not everyone shares that urgency. Bitcoin analyst PlanC argued on Sept. 5 that fixating on a Q4 peak is misguided:
“Anyone who thinks Bitcoin has to peak in Q4 of this year does not understand statistics or probability,” he said.
