Bitcoin begins the first week of March 2026 in a state of uncertainty as renewed geopolitical turmoil rattles global markets.
- Bitcoin has so far sidestepped major volatility despite the outbreak of a new Middle East conflict, though trader sentiment remains subdued.
- Long-term price structures are now pointing to a potential downside target around $45,000.
- Escalating tensions involving Iran dominate the macro landscape this week, even as analysts push back on claims that the situation amounts to “World War Three.”
- Rising inflation risks may also incentivize the US to keep any military engagement brief.
- Meanwhile, institutional inflows into Bitcoin are beginning to hint at a possible turnaround after months of sustained outflows.
Bitcoin managed to withstand an initial sell-off triggered by the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, with price briefly dipping toward the mid-$60,000 area amid thin weekend liquidity before stabilizing and rebounding.
Data from TradingView showed BTC dipping to around $63,000 at the height of the initial market reaction, but buyers stepped in and helped it recover toward pre-conflict levels.
Analysts and traders have noted that, despite elevated geopolitical risk, the cryptocurrency has so far avoided a broad panic sell-off, with many watching how markets and related risk assets behave as traditional trading resumes during the week.
Traders now say the unfolding situation may continue to support relative stability across crypto markets.
“If it’s a bloodbath (unlikely imo), then I’ll long Bitcoin around $61k–$60k ahead of de-escalation talk news,” trader CrypNuevo wrote in a thread on X.
He argued that any signs of easing tensions would act as a key catalyst for markets in the days ahead, adding that a prolonged conflict would be politically and economically counterproductive for Donald Trump.
According to CrypNuevo, an extended war could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, push oil prices higher and drive up US CPI inflation — an outcome he believes Washington would seek to avoid.
Meanwhile, fellow trader Crypto Tony identified the $62,000 level as a potential long entry point for Bitcoin.
“I think there’ll be a pump above $74K to trap late buyers before the next big dump.”
$45,000 joins bearish BTC price targets
Bearish forecasts for Bitcoin continue to dominate longer time frames as bulls struggle to regain even nearby support levels, reinforcing downbeat outlooks for 2026.
Independent analyst Filbfilb has revived focus on a long-term trend line that suggests the potential for another major correction — possibly as deep as 50%.
“In every instance since inception, a weekly close below the yellow band has resulted in a c.40–50% correction,” Filbfilb told followers on X, sharing a chart highlighting similar historical breakdowns.
“Levels c. $40-45k for the bands at the moment. A bounce off around $50k is not impossible, but ultimately, the price has met the lower band.”
In follow-up analysis, traders identified a potential “rescue” level for the weekly close at $72,000 — a threshold that remained out of reach as of Monday.
The $45,000 area has already gained traction as a widely discussed long-term floor for Bitcoin.
Posting on his Telegram channel, Filbfilb also noted that derivatives data is beginning to resemble conditions seen during Bitcoin’s previous bear market. Open interest is climbing even as price declines, a dynamic that typically signals a buildup of short positions.
Analysis on Iran: “This is NOT World War Three”
With limited US inflation data due this week, market focus remains squarely on escalating tensions in the Middle East and their broader economic implications.
The recent military actions involving Iran, United States and Israel have already sparked a sharp uptick in global energy prices — with benchmark crude oil climbing more than 7 % amid fears of supply disruption around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for nearly 20 % of the world’s oil trade.
At the same time, Asian stock markets slipped on Monday as investors reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and the risk-off sentiment spreading through financial markets.
Despite the heightened tensions, much analysis has rejected the notion that current events equate to a full-scale global conflict, instead framing them as serious regional escalation with significant but contained economic effects. Market watching this week will therefore be shaped by how these dynamics unfold and whether de-escalation signals emerge to temper risk assets.
Volatility swept through global markets as investors weighed the implications of a military campaign against Iran that Donald Trump said could last up to a month.
“Combat operations continue at this time in full force and they will continue until all our objectives are achieved. We have very strong objectives,” Trump said in a televised address on Sunday.
Despite the geopolitical shock, crypto markets remained relatively composed over the weekend. As traditional financial markets reopened, Bitcoin managed to hold $65,000 as support.
Around $300 million in long liquidations were triggered as the news broke, according to trading firm QCP Capital in its latest “Asia Color” update. The firm described the move as significant but orderly, especially compared with the more chaotic deleveraging seen in early February.
“The comparatively modest scale of forced selling suggests that positioning had already been materially lightened in recent weeks.”
QCP Capital noted that a previous flare-up involving Iran in June 2025 led only to short-lived divergences in Bitcoin’s price before the broader uptrend resumed.
“While the scale of this attack is far greater than last year’s, price action could be hinting at early signs of history repeating itself,” the firm said.
Market commentary from The Kobeissi Letter struck a similar tone, arguing that oil price movements did not reflect outright panic.
“This is NOT World War 3. Ignore the noise,” it told followers on X.
US inflation in focus amid oil volatility
However, longer-term concerns remain over how the Iran conflict could influence US inflation. With potential disruptions to oil trade routes — particularly the risk of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz — Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is drawing closer scrutiny.
February CPI figures are scheduled for release on March 11, though it may take weeks before the latest geopolitical developments meaningfully impact official readings.
Kobeissi wrote on X that a full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, which its analysis suggests would drive US CPI inflation toward roughly 5%.
Recent US inflation readings have come in above expectations — in some cases by a wide margin — leaving markets particularly sensitive to fresh shocks.
“A jump in oil prices could have major implications on the outlook for inflation,” trading firm Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its newsletter, The Market Mosaic, underscoring how energy volatility could quickly reshape policy expectations.
“Changes in energy prices can drive fluctuations in headline inflation, with a study by the Federal Reserve estimating that every $10 increase in the price of oil adds 0.20% headline inflation.”
Mosaic Asset Company compared the current environment to the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cautioning that geopolitical tensions are not the only factor driving oil higher.
“Energy prices were a major contributor to an inflation wave that peaked in 2022 at the highest level in over 40 years,” the firm said, noting that renewed strength in oil could once again amplify broader price pressures.
“While the conflict in the Middle East will be a major catalyst for movement in energy prices, a prolonged period of underinvestment in various energy and industrial commodities was already setting the stage for a rally.”
The Kobeissi Letter argued that Donald Trump’s stated goal of “eliminating inflation” and lowering gasoline prices suggests policymakers will try to limit any secondary economic fallout.
According to the newsletter, a drawn-out conflict with Iran would run counter to those priorities — particularly in the short term during a pivotal midterm election year.
“We think Trump aims for a short and swift operation and markets prevail once again as the dust settles,” it concluded.
Elevated inflation lowers the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, dampening expectations for fresh liquidity that could support crypto and other risk assets. According to the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in just a 4.4% probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting.
Bitcoin ETF flows turn positive
Despite subdued price action and growing acceptance that a new bear market may be underway, institutional flows are drawing attention from onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded three straight days of net inflows last week, totaling more than $1 billion. Friday saw a relatively small net outflow of $27.5 million, according to data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors.
CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha said the recent shift signals a potentially important change in market structure.
“Lately, the crypto markets has been showing some very specific on-chain signals that suggest a major shift in how Bitcoin is moving between different types of investors,” Taha wrote in a Quicktake blog post Monday.
He described the inflow rebound as the first “meaningful” accumulation phase since last October, around the time Bitcoin reached its $126,200 all-time high.
“This marks the first noticeable accumulation wave after months of stagnation or decline,” Taha added.
“Historically, rising ETF demand tends to be constructive for price, while declining demand often aligns with price weakness.”
Previously, Cointelegraph highlighted expectations that conviction among institutional Bitcoin investors will continue to deepen over time, as a new wave of buyers enters the market with less interest in reacting to short-term price swings.
“Every cycle, the weak hands get filtered out. And every cycle, what replaces them is longer-duration capital,” said Eric Jackson, founder of EMJ Capital.
“2017: retail sold at $20K. 2021: funds sold at $69K. 2025: ETF allocators are selling at $63K.”
Jackson called the recent exodus of ETF buyers the “purification” of the long-term Bitcoin bull case.
