Norway eyes Polymarket as three traders — led by a fresh “6741” account — parlayed last‑hour bets on María Corina Machado into roughly $90,000 before her Nobel Peace Prize was revealed.
Norwegian officials are investigating a possible information leak related to betting activity on Polymarket, following online wagers that correctly predicted the winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize hours before the official announcement.
According to Bloomberg, the Norwegian Nobel Institute has confirmed that it is examining whether confidential information about the prize recipient, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, was leaked ahead of the public announcement.
“We’re looking into it,” said Erik Aasheim, spokesperson for the Nobel Institute, following reports first published by Aftenposten and Finansavisen.
Officials Investigate Nobel Prize Information Leak Linked to Polymarket Trading
The investigation was prompted after trading data on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform built on the Polygon blockchain, showed a sudden surge in bets favoring Machado roughly 11 hours before the Nobel Committee’s announcement in Oslo.
Machado was ultimately awarded the prize on Friday morning for her efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela.
Source: Polymarket
At around midnight Norwegian time, Polymarket users began heavily buying contracts for Machado at just $0.08, sending the price soaring to $1.00 by the time of the announcement, a more than 1,000% gain.
Three accounts that primarily bet on Machado reportedly earned a combined profit of about $90,000, according to Finansavisen.
Local media reports indicate that the five-member Nobel Committee had finalized its decision on Monday, with Machado being notified shortly before the announcement.
The timing of the surge in Polymarket activity has led officials to question whether information about the winner may have been leaked from within the committee or its close network of advisers.
Polymarket, known for allowing users to trade on real-world outcomes using stablecoins such as USDC, has become a fast-growing venue for crowdsourced prediction data.
The platform often attracts traders who analyze public clues, social media activity, and institutional behavior to anticipate events before they are officially confirmed.
In this case, the Nobel Peace Prize market, which allowed users to buy and sell shares of potential winners, became a focal point of speculation.
Hours before the Nobel Committee made its public announcement, Machado’s contract price began climbing sharply, while odds for other candidates remained flat. The incident shows both the power and risk of open information markets.
While such platforms aggregate public sentiment and data efficiently, they also raise questions about insider knowledge when trading activity appears to outpace official disclosures.
