U.S. stock futures pointed to a largely higher open, starting the week on a positive note, as investor focus turns to key economic data and the likelihood of the Federal Reserve changing interest rates.
“The priced-in probability of a December cut is now around 50%, which means any data point can easily swing the needle,” ING said .
Data releases from this week should start to provide a clearer picture for policymakers, Jefferies said, adding that any weakening in data would move the Fed closer to a rate cut next month.
“The December meeting is a coin toss as the Fed still wouldn’t have enough data to be convinced one way or the other,” Jefferies said separately.
It comes as September’s nonfarm payrolls report will be published Thursday following the reopening of the federal government.
Markets will also dissect the Fed’s October meeting minutes on Wednesday and U.S. purchasing managers’ data on Friday.
Also expected Friday is data from September on real earnings.
Stocks to Watch
Alphabet shares jumped more than 5% after Berkshire Hathaway said it took a stake in the company parent last quarter.
Disney shares ticked upward by 0.4% after agreeing to return ESPN, ABC and other Disney networks to YouTube.
HP Inc. fell 2.7% after Morgan Stanley cut its price target for the company and downgraded it to underweight from equalweight.
Tesla shares rose 0.35% after the company began requiring suppliers to exclude components made in China.
U.S.-listed shares of XPeng fell 3.7% after the electric-vehicle maker reported a net loss .
Watch For:
Canadian CPI data for October; Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson speaks on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City; Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks on Economic Outlook at the Society of Professional Economists (SPE) Annual Dinner 2025 in London
Today’s Top Headlines/Must Reads:
– Layoff Tactics Keep Changing, and the Blunders Keep Coming
– White House Hunts for Ways to Lower the Cost of Living
– Wall Street Blows Past Bubble Worries to Supercharge AI Spending Frenzy
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar traded steadily as investors wait for the release of delayed U.S. jobs data for clues on whether the Fed will cut interest rates again next month.
“The December meeting is a coin toss as the Fed still wouldn’t have enough data to be convinced one way or the other,” Jefferies said.
The euro fell against the pound and sterling was flat against the dollar. The U.K. currency could see renewed falls if inflation data on Wednesday show price pressures eased in October, ING said.
Bonds:
Treasury yields declined with investors awaiting the delayed September nonfarm payrolls data which could provide a clearer view of the labor market after weeks of incomplete information, Kudotrade said.
Soft data could reinforce the case for further easing by the Fed, while stronger readings may bolster the Fed’s cautious stance.
Treasury yields were expected to fall in the first half of next year before rising again, Morgan Stanley said, adding that yields were expected to be range-bound in 2026.
Meanwhile, issuance was forecast to remain a key driver for Treasurys in coming years, according to Nordea.
“We maintain our view of higher long end rates both from our impression of the labour market and inflation, but perhaps more importantly from the increasing supply side in the bond market that we expect to influence markets the next couple of years.”
Metals:
Gold prices slipped in early trading as investors scaled back expectations of a December interest-rate cut by the Fed.
“Softer expectations for looser policy followed cautious comments from Fed officials, while the six-week U.S. government shutdown has delayed key labour and inflation data, leaving policymakers more reluctant to commit to another move,” MUFG said.
Energy:
Oil prices were broadly stable after reports that loadings at a key Russian export terminal resumed after a Ukrainian attack, UBS said.
“Brent crude oil prices continue to fluctuate in a $60-$70 a barrel range, with the market focus shifting to how Russian oil exports will evolve over the coming months.”
Brent crude prices were expected to fluctuate in the $60-$70 a barrel trading range, as rising oil inventories haven’t yet translated into an overabundance of oil, according to UBS.
“By mid-2026, the market focus will likely shift to 2027, during which we anticipate stalling non-OPEC+ supply growth, and specifically a market focus on limited spare capacity amid still rising oil demand.”
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
TotalEnergies to Form Flexible Power JV With Kretinsky’s EPH in $5.9 Billion Deal
TotalEnergies said it agreed to buy 50% of Daniel Kretinsky-owned EPH’s flexible power-generation platform to form a joint venture in a 5.1 billion-euro ($5.93 billion) all-stock deal.
The deal will give Energeticky a Prumyslovy Holding a roughly 4.1% stake in TotalEnergies, making it one of the French oil giant’s largest shareholders.
Geely Automobile Profit Jumps on Robust Sales
Geely Automobile delivered a strong third quarter despite stiff competition in its home market of China, with both net profit and revenue rising sharply, supported by effective cost controls and robust sales.
Net profit jumped 59% from a year earlier to 3.82 billion yuan, equivalent to $538.1 million, as revenue climbed 27% to 89.19 billion yuan, the Hangzhou-based automaker said Monday. Geely sold a total of 761,000 vehicles during the quarter, up 43% from the previous year.
Korean Conglomerates Pledge Billions in Domestic Investments
South Korean technology stocks rose after the nation’s largest conglomerates pledged billions of dollars in new domestic investments, in a push to shore up the country’s manufacturing base as Seoul works to ease trade frictions with Washington.
Shares of Samsung rose more than 3% as of midday on Monday and SK Hynix rose 7%. LG Electronics traded 1.2% higher, HD Hyundai rose 5.6%, while Hyundai Motor edged 0.1% lower. Shares of Hanwha Group rose 2.0%.
Nvidia Helped Spark the AI Rally. Its Earnings Could Revive It.
Nvidia’s earnings report in the spring of 2023, months after the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, marked the start of a new era for both the chip maker and the broader market’s awareness of the likely effects of artificial intelligence.
The company’s revenue forecast, nearly double Wall Street’s estimate, showed that the starting gun had been fired in a race to develop AI that would add more than $3.5 trillion in value to Nvidia stock over the next 2 1/2 years. It also helped lift the Nasdaq Composite more than 88% to the record it reached in late October.
Threats to Eurozone Financial Stability ‘Remain Elevated,’ Says ECB’s De Guindos
Threats to the stability of the eurozone’s financial system remain “elevated” despite a series of agreements between the U.S. and its trading partners, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said Monday.
In a speech, de Guindos said that while a “large-scale” trade war between the U.S. and other countries has been averted, uncertainty about government policies that can affect the financial system remains high.
Japan’s Economy Contracts for First Time in Six Quarters
TOKYO-The Japanese economy contracted for the first time in six quarters, further complicating the timeline of the central bank’s next interest-rate hike.
Real gross domestic product shrank 0.4% on a quarter-over-quarter basis, preliminary government data showed Monday. That compared with the 0.6% growth recorded in the April-June period and marked the first contraction since the first quarter of 2024.
Swiss Economy Contracts as Central Bank Weighs Negative Rates
Switzerland’s economy contracted in the third quarter of the year as sky-high U.S. tariffs kicked in, a result that raises pressure on the country’s central bank to cut interest rates below zero.
Gross domestic product declined 0.5% in the three months through September, compared with 0.1% growth in the second quarter, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said in a flash estimate Monday. Both mark a considerable slowdown from the 0.7% in the first quarter.
Trump Backs Vote to Release Epstein Files in Sharp Reversal
WASHINGTON-President Trump threw in the towel on dissuading House Republicans from backing a measure to release files related to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, saying Sunday night that GOP lawmakers should instead embrace the vote.
The vote set for this week had been shaping up as a major test of GOP loyalty to the president, who has kept an iron grip over the party since starting his second term in January. Dozens of Republicans were expected to potentially break with the president when the measure hit the House floor, and Trump’s announcement avoids a potential embarrassment for the White House.
FAA to Lift Government Shutdown-Related Flight Restrictions
The Federal Aviation Administration said it would lift its flight restrictions related to the government shutdown, clearing the way for normal operations to resume at U.S. airports after weeks of delays and cancellations.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said Sunday that the 6% traffic cut implemented last week would be terminated at 6 a.m. ET Monday morning. They said the move came after the FAA reviewed safety trends, and saw improving staffing levels.
Trump Says U.S. May Hold Talks With Venezuela’s Maduro
WASHINGTON-President Trump said his administration may hold talks with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as the U.S. military buildup near the South American country grows.
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