Stock futures kicked off December in the red after a volatile November as investors awaited key data releases for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move.
ISM surveys for November for manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday, as well as the ADP private payrolls figures for November on Wednesday, will be closely watched. PCE data for September are released on Friday and will also attract attention.
Incoming economic data should continue to show a resilient economy, sticky inflation, and a modest deterioration in labour market conditions, Societe Generale said.
“Following a [rate] cut at the December meeting, we expect the Federal Reserve to cut twice next year ,” it added.
The recent government shutdown means key jobs and inflation figures won’t be released until after the Fed’s December 10 decision, when the market expects another rate cut.
As money markets are now close to fully pricing in a 25bp interest-rate cut at the December meeting, investors will increasingly focus on the pricing of subsequent meetings , Goldman Sachs said.
Trump said Sunday that he’s picked his next Fed chair and will make his announcement soon, but declined to confirm that his nomination to replace Jerome Powell will be Kevin Hassett , current director of the President’s National Economic Council.
Aside from economic releases, Wall Street kicks off the final month of the year with a packed slate of earnings, including cloud-software pioneer Salesforce.
Stocks to Watch
A slump in cryptocurrency prices weighed on shares of Strategy. Exchange Coinbase also fell premarket.
Database company MongoDB and high-speed connectivity provider Credo Technology are due to report earnings after the market closes.
Watch For:
ISM Report on Business Manufacturing PMI for November
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MARKET WRAPS Forex:
The dollar fell ahead of U.S. economic data that could influence expectations for the Fed’s interest-rate cutting cycle.
The greenback still hasn’t fully absorbed the negatives of increased rate-cut bets , leaving “risks on the downside” for the currency, ING said.
The euro rose to a two-week high against a weaker dollar.
The currency’s moves should remain contained even after November eurozone inflation data are released Tuesday, Commerzbank said.
Sterling fell as it remains “highly sensitive” to political developments in the U.K. , Tickmill Group said.
“The fallout from the U.K. Budget continues as the Office for Budget Responsibility prepares to release its report today on the early publication of the Economic and Fiscal Outlook,” it added.
Bonds:
Treasury yields rose in early trade as trading resumes after Thanksgiving and a short session last week, awaiting new data to trade on.
The Treasury was expected to postpone testing investor appetite for longer duration debt , Societe Generale said.
“We expect 2026 to be defined by elevated T-bill issuance and steady coupon supply, driven by persistent large deficits and volatile tariff revenues.”
Fed rate cuts are seen driving Treasury yields lower by end-2026, the bank said.
Energy:
Oil prices climbed after OPEC+ members decided to leave output steady and as traders monitor geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Venezuela.
OPEC+’s decision to assess the maximum sustainable production capacity of members will likely stir tensions within the group, according to ING.
Metals:
Gold prices rose in early trading on a softer dollar and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further this year.
Precious metals are likely supported by a combination of erratic trading hours on the CME and continued Fed dovishness , Sucden Financial said.
Copper
Copper gained. The market narrative around tightening copper supply is becoming increasingly prevalent, according to Sucden Financial.
Rare Earths
UBS highlighted some reasons why investors shouldn’t fret too much about a potential oversupply of rare-earth oxides.
The bank said it was “sympathetic to concerns about oversupply” and acknowledged “a large range of outcomes remained possible.”
Iron
Iron ore prices were higher in early trade, but analysts remain bearish on the black metal in the near term. Iron ore’s supply-demand dynamics haven’t improved , Baocheng Futures said.
Airbus Shares Fall After Urgent Fixes Needed on Thousands of A320 Aircraft
Airbus shares fell after thousands of the manufacturer’s planes required urgent fixes over the weekend to allow them to fly again.
Shares were 2.4% lower in early European trade Monday.
‘Zootopia 2′ Opens to More Than Half a Billion Dollars Globally
“Zootopia 2” roared to life at the box office, dominating Thanksgiving weekend domestically and showing the right Hollywood movie can still make big money in China.
Disney’s talking-animals comedy opened to an estimated $556 million worldwide, putting it on track to ultimately gross more than $1 billion and become the most successful American movie released so far in 2025.
Gen Z Shoppers Aren’t Spending Like Retailers Need Them To
Economic worries aren’t putting much of a dent in consumers’ holiday shopping plans, with one glaring exception: Gen Z shoppers.
More than any other generation, young adults are tightening their year-end spending budgets and shelling out less for gifts, survey data shows. That is a problem for retailers and brands that look to Generation Z-a group that runs from teens to late-20-somethings-to drive shopping trends and boost spending steadily as they earn bigger paychecks.
America Loves a $13 Lunch Bowl. Don’t Bet Against It.
It has been a rough stretch for the makers of healthy-but fast-lunch bowls. After years of riding a wellness wave, they’ve suddenly found themselves squeezed between rising costs and a jittery consumer.
Younger consumers are looking for places to trim. For some, that means fewer carne asada burritos and harissa bowls. Chipotle, Cava and Sweetgreen have all reported softer results in recent quarters. Their stocks show the damage: So far this year, Chipotle is down around 44%, Cava about 56% and Sweetgreen about 80%.
Bitcoin Falls as Prospect of Rate Rise in Japan Spooks Investors
Bitcoin fell sharply Monday as investors shunned risky assets after Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda strengthened expectations for another increase in interest rates later this month.
The move came against a backdrop of concerns about an overvaluation of tech stocks and other risky assets.
Asia Manufacturers Signal Brighter Outlook Despite PMI Weakness
Asian manufacturers have turned somewhat more upbeat about the outlook for the year ahead despite continued demand uncertainty and rising price pressures.
S&P Global’s latest purchasing managers indexes showed a broad uptick in sentiment in the sector midway through the last quarter of 2025, but also weak spots in demand as U.S. tariffs weighed.
Rate Hikes Wouldn’t Put Brakes on Japan’s Economy, BOJ’s Ueda Says
NAGOYA, Japan-The Bank of Japan will thoroughly discuss the possibility of an interest-rate increase at its coming meeting, Gov. Kazuo Ueda said, stoking hopes that it will resume monetary tightening this year.
Now that Tokyo’s trade agreement with the Trump administration has reduced external risks, the BOJ governor said the central bank will pay special attention to the outlook for wage increases in Japan next year.
Congress Opens Inquiries After Report That U.S. Targeted Boat-Strike Survivors
Congress launched inquiries and lawmakers from both parties raised the possibility of war crimes after a report that the U.S. targeted survivors of a strike on an alleged drug boat.
The Republican-led armed-services committees in the House and Senate said this weekend they are opening bipartisan inquiries, after the Washington Post reported on a Sept. 2 attack on a boat in the Caribbean. In that attack, the Post said, a second strike was ordered to kill two survivors in the water.
After ‘Productive’ Meeting With Ukrainian Negotiators in Florida, U.S. Officials Head to Russia
HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla.-U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators said Sunday’s meeting on ending the war with Russia-which included talks on possible elections, land swaps and security guarantees-was productive, and top U.S. envoys will head to Moscow on Monday for further discussions.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Ukrainian counterparts for more than four hours. Rubio said they made progress, adding that the negotiations are complex.
How Venezuelan Gangs and African Jihadists Are Flooding Europe With Cocaine
Venezuela has become a major launchpad for huge volumes of cocaine shipped to West Africa, where jihadists are helping traffic it to Europe in record quantities.
Corrupt military officers and drug gangs smuggle shipments by light aircraft, fishing boats, semi-submersible vessels and freighters heading east, international law-enforcement officials have said publicly. The cocaine flows to West Africa, where an informal network of jihadist-linked smugglers and their allies then move the drug north to feed high and rising demand in Europe.
