According to Japanese analysts, the Nintendo Switch 2 will remain scarcely available in global stores until at least next Spring. As reported by Nikkei, Toyo Securities senior analyst Hideki Yasuda and UBS Securities analyst Zhai Yijia estimate that the console’s first-month sales following the June 6 launch might be around 6 million units.
Yasuda reckons that, even with the limited supply, the Nintendo Switch 2 could reach 20 million units sold by the end of this fiscal year (March 2026), while Yijia is a bit more conservative with his 18 million units. Regardless, these goals would outperform the original Switch by 20% to 30%.
Yiija is also more conservative in his long-term outlook on the console’s sales:
Initial sales are higher than those of the Switch and Sony’s PlayStation 5, but this should not be seen simply as an increase in demand. Those consoles suffered from semiconductor shortages at the time of their release that limited production, curtailing supply. It will be difficult to surpass the cumulative sales of the Switch.
His colleague Yasuda is more optimistic:
It is overwhelmingly popular compared to past game consoles, and consoles that have a strong initial response tend to continue to have high demand.
Market analysis firm DFC Intelligence estimated that the Nintendo Switch 2 could sell over 100 million units by the end of 2029, which would definitely keep it on track to surpass the original console over time.
Meanwhile, Nintendo has commented on the Switch 2 price, with President Shuntaro Furukawa stating that the company is evaluating the extent to which the pricing may be a barrier for certain consumers, especially the younger ones:
