Market strategist Gareth Soloway has warned that the next major U.S. equity downturn could lead to up to two decades of stagnation rather than a sharp crash followed by a quick rebound.
Soloway, the President and Chief Market Strategist at Verified Investing, argued that rising geopolitical tensions and aggressive trade policies toward key allies are accelerating a shift away from U.S. financial dominance.
In a February 24 interview with David Lin, he said countries that have long been major buyers of U.S. Treasuries are reducing exposure.
In this line, he cited China’s pullback and broader sovereign diversification as signs that de-dollarization is underway.
Technically, Soloway flagged a key long-term support trend in the U.S. dollar dating back to the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
A sustained break below that level would signal structural weakness, not a temporary move. While he does not expect a currency collapse, he believes reduced Treasury demand could persist as U.S. debt grows.
He likened the outlook to Japan’s post-1980s bubble era, when stocks peaked and failed to revisit prior highs for decades.
Rather than a single crash, he expects prolonged sideways trading with repeated drawdowns, warning that new all-time highs may not materialize at least over a decade.
“I think with sideways you’ll have down periods where you’re down 20%, 30%, 40% in the stock market. But again, a crash specifically that’s harder to predict, like a 1987-type event. But I do think that again we could be down, and it may take us, like I said, 15 to 20 plus years to get back to those all-time highs,” Soloway said.
At the same time, the expert warned that this environment would be especially damaging for retirement savers who depend on long-term capital gains.
If inflation persists while stocks stagnate, purchasing power could erode without a dramatic crash, potentially defining a prolonged secular bear market.
Soloway added that investors should prioritize preserving purchasing power over chasing double-digit returns. Over a 10- to 20-year horizon, he favors diversification into assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin, while noting that cash or short-term Treasury bills may provide stability during market drawdowns.
He also emphasized dividend-paying stocks as a partial hedge if price growth stalls, as companies that sustain margins and consistent payouts could help offset inflation even if indexes remain flat.
Beyond equities, Soloway is bearish on housing, citing affordability pressures and rising supply as baby boomers transfer or sell properties. He expects real estate prices to stay flat or trend lower over the next two decades.
