A new delegates poll has placed Assin Central MP Kennedy Ohene Agyapong ahead of Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia and other contenders in the race for the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) 2026 presidential ticket.
The poll, conducted between 22 September and 5 October 2025, surveyed 26,150 delegates from all 275 constituencies across Ghana.
According to Dr. Evans Duah, the lead researcher behind the study, the sampling was done through a combination of random and proportional (quota) sampling methods to ensure that each constituency’s delegate population was fairly represented.
“For example, if Constituency A has 1,400 delegates and Constituency B has 400, we ensured proportional representation. The goal was to make the data nationally reflective,” Dr. Duah explained on the Asaase Breakfast Show on Friday (24 October).
He said the study recorded a 76% response rate, adding that the 24% non-response bias — largely due to unreachable contacts or unavailability — was acknowledged and factored into the analysis with a 95% confidence level.
Dr. Duah noted that the September results showed a shift in delegate preferences compared to an earlier August poll.
“In August, Dr. Bawumia led in several regions, including Eastern. But by September, Kennedy Agyapong had made significant gains, moving into the lead. Dr. Bawumia’s numbers remained steady, while Dr. Boakye Agyarko and Dr. Kofi Konadu Apraku saw modest improvements,” he said.
The data also revealed that Dr. Bawumia, who had 39.5% of delegate support in August, dropped marginally in the “best-case scenario” model due to new entrants drawing support from his camp.
“When one candidate gains, another must lose. The best-case scenario isn’t about a candidate’s best outcome — it’s about the contest’s most competitive outcome,” Dr. Duah clarified.
He further dismissed claims of bias or manipulation, noting that his team maintained transparency throughout the process.
“We recorded interviews for quality assurance, kept constituency-level data sheets, and maintained a live dashboard during fieldwork,” he said.
The researcher also acknowledged that political dynamics could still change before the 31 January 2026 NPP flagbearership election.
“This is a snapshot, not a prediction. Campaign momentum, endorsements, and new developments could shift delegate behavior,” Dr. Duah emphasised.
