The White House is ramping up military pressure on Iran, the Epstein files keep detonating in slow motion, and new polling shows Trump losing his grip with the voters who once decided elections for him. It’s a lot — and it’s not slowing down anytime soon.
Closer to home, Trump’s attempt to stall the Gateway Tunnel hit another wall in court, and Gov. Mikie Sherrill laid out her early blueprint for tackling affordability and infrastructure.
Julie Roginsky, a Democrat, and Mike DuHaime, a Republican, are consultants who have worked on opposite teams for their entire careers yet have remained friends. They break it down for us. Star-Ledger editor Enrique Lavín is moderator.
Q: The U.S. has deployed aircraft carriers, destroyers, fighter jets, and thousands of additional military personnel to the Middle East. The buildup is being described as setting the stage for a “potentially sustained campaign” against Iran if Trump gives the order — possibly as soon as this weekend. We know Trump’s America First supporters insist they’re not for foreign wars, and any conflict in the Middle East will spike gas prices at the pump. How does this make political sense for Trump and the GOP?
Mike: America is unified in its disdain and distrust for Iran, no matter who is president. The president will have to make the case to the American people if he is going to put any troops on the ground or further destabilize the most volatile neighborhood on the globe.
Julie: Wait a second. Last summer, Donald Trump puffed out his chest, squinted into a teleprompter, and declared that he had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. Obliterated. Not dented, delayed, or mildly inconvenienced. Obliterated. So why exactly are we engaged in regime change there?
Even if we get rid of Khamenei and the leadership, we will not get rid of the IRGC — and the people who really run the country — without American boots on the ground and a sustained land war. I’m old enough to remember how that has worked out for us in recent decades.
Q: Last week, independent U.N. human rights experts declared that the Epstein files provide credible evidence of a “global criminal enterprise.” They warned that the systematic abuse, trafficking, and exploitation detailed in the documents meet the legal threshold for crimes against humanity — including sexual slavery and torture — and urged global courts to prosecute those involved. More than 1,200 victims have been identified so far. Will this put any pressure on Congress or the DOJ to pursue greater accountability?
Mike: Well, that sounds about right since it seems perpetrators and victims were crossing international borders. The more this is talked about, the more pressure it brings. The complication here is that this is not a policy fight. For a Republican House member, this is not twisting your position on tariffs, it’s protecting pedophiles and sex traffickers. That’s not okay, and all who protect them will pay a political price.
Julie: The Republican Party will never push for accountability because accountability looks very much like holding accountable Donald Trump, who is mentioned in the Epstein files more than Jesus Christ’s name is mentioned in the Bible and Harry Potter’s name is mentioned in the Harry Potter series. (For real – look it up.) We will have to wait until 2029 and a Democratic president to hold these pedophiles to account.
Q: A new Economist/YouGov poll finds that 50% of Americans — including 54% of women — believe Donald Trump was involved in Epstein’s crimes, while 30% say he wasn’t. A majority (53%) also think he is actively trying to cover up the crimes. Can Trump and the GOP hold off this slow-dripping scandal?
Mike: Trump campaigned on transparency and busting up the deep state. Those numbers suggest many are skeptical. The flip side is, it is not an overwhelming number, which means his base is still with him.
Julie: This slow-dripping scandal is not going away. It’s over. That’s why Trump is contemplating war against Iran. He needs a change of subject, STAT.
Q: With so many new storylines emerging from the partial release of the Epstein files, what is catching your attention in terms of how these revelations might play out politically?
Mike: It seems there is a new person, in or out of politics, implicated every day. I didn’t realize how many wealthy dirtbag pedophiles were out there. I am so naïve.
Julie: I was never a conspiracy theorist, but it seems to me that there really was a conspiracy of rich, powerful people who were involved in Epstein’s crimes. What is upsetting is that other countries, like the United Kingdom, are holding their rich and powerful alleged pedophiles to account. Here in the United States – not so much.
Q: CNN’s Harry Enten says new polling (NBC/SurveyMonkey) shows Kamala Harris would beat Donald Trump by eight points in a 2024 redo — a massive swing driven by Trump voters who now regret their vote. He also reports that Trump’s net approval rating among independents has collapsed to -27, emphasizing that when a president is that far underwater with the center of the electorate, “you lose — your party loses.” Can Trump rebuild his coalition before the midterms?
Mike: Not surprising, but the real key is, it doesn’t matter. Trump won. Harris lost. Biden and the Democrats blew it. A SurveyMonkey poll should bring no solace to anyone from the losing side. Midterms are going to be tough for Trump, as they usually are for the party in power.
Julie: It’s too late for Trump to rebuild his coalition, which is why he is so desperate to pass the SAVE Act. The only way his party can win now is by cheating and disenfranchising millions of voters.
Q: File under: Another embarrassing self‑created crisis the White House was forced to reverse? After the president froze legally approved funding and shut the project down, a federal judge forced the administration to release the money last week. Are we — in New Jersey and New York — finally out of the water on this one?
Mike: No, because Trump will keep pushing executive power. He will abide by the court’s ruling but will find another way to challenge it.
Julie: Trump will keep trying. He will appeal or figure out another way to stop this. Penn Station won’t be named after him all on its own, after all.
Q: Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s transition team last week rolled out 10 major policy reports — covering everything from making energy more affordable, lowering housing costs, and expanding homeownership, to strengthening kids’ mental health and online safety, modernizing transportation, protecting healthcare amid Medicaid cuts, boosting jobs and economic development, and improving fiscal accountability. What stands out to you? What should the governor prioritize?
Mike: The governor should prioritize making energy more affordable and more reliable. That will have a multiplier effect on the economy, on businesses, on consumer spending, and more. No more crazy 2030 press releases. No more blaming other states. Just get the job done. The governor’s brand is one of a Navy helicopter pilot. They don’t strike me as folks who pass the buck. The voters will give her time and root for her success, but only if she takes ownership and moves this policy in a new direction.
Julie: Gov. Sherrill can walk and chew gum at the same time. She has an affordability agenda, and so as long as she will make New Jerseyans feel that she is working on helping them afford to live here – admittedly a tall order – she will be fine.
