– US equity index futures climb buoyed by optimistic earnings from Apple and Amazon (see Stocks below) helping reverse a chunk of yesterday’s losses for the S&P 500 (-1%) and more so the Nasdaq 100 (-1.5% ) where the roles were reversed with value stocks and defensive sectors outperforming while tech was in retreat as losses in both Meta and Microsoft weighed.
Treasury yields rise again on the further end of the curve, albeit by a smaller amount compared to Wednesday’s action, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) shows, via the majority, another 25bp rate cut in December, while likely to hold in January. On the trade front, overall levy on Chinese imports into the US drops to 47% from 57% following the Trump-Xi meeting, and the rare earth “issue has been settled”
– Asia this morning sees Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.8%) breaching 52K for the first time ever
– Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) close 2% lower taking its market cap back below $5tn with larger losses for rival AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) down 3.6% for the session, as although increased capex from Big Tech seen as a plus, there was a lack of clarity on the trade front for semiconductors following the US-China agreement that focused on rare earths, port fees, and agriculture
– Shares of Meta (NASDAQ:META) suffer its worst day in years with a big drop of over 11% by the close following its earnings release prior
– Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares up over 3% in extended trading as it announces a 10-for-1 stock split and begins trading at the new price on November 17
– Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) (-10.5%), GoPro (-3.1%), Krispy Kreme (-4.2%), Opendoor (-4.1%), Nokia (-2.1%), GameStop (-3.4%)
– Crypto stocks track cryptocurrencies lower: Coinbase (-5.8% by the close but up in extended trading following its earnings, see below), MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) (-7.6% by the close but up in extended trading following its earnings, see below), Mara Holdings (-5.9%), Gemini Space Station (-8.7%), Bullish (-5%)
– Earnings:
o Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): earnings and revenue beat and does better on most other key metrics as well, and provides a strong forecast for the current quarter; shares up 2.3% in extended trading
o Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): beats on all key metrics and raises capex forecast to $125bn from $118bn prior and that the figure is likely to increase next year; shares surge 13.2%
o Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY): clear beat on both earnings and revenue and raises its full-year outlook; shares jump 3.8%
o Merck (NYSE:MRK): suffers a miss on earnings while beats on revenue; shares finish 0.4% lower
o Shell (NYSE:SHEL): beats on earnings, adjusted profit and revenue, and announces a $3.5bn share buyback; shares up 0.5% by the close
o Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN): beats on both earnings and revenue and increases its BTC holdings; shares up 3.6% in extended trading
o MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR): earnings and revenue beat; shares up 5.7% in extended trading
o Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA): earnings and revenue beat but loses domestic broadband customers yet again; shares close 4.3% lower
– Gold climbs 2% to get back above $4K but yet to breach its current short-term zone as suffers a small early dip while silver at one point wasn’t far off a short-term resistance level after climbing 2.5% to take the gold/silver ratio below 82
– Ongoing oscillation for oil prices (WTI) hovering around $60 as traders look to the weekend OPEC+ meeting to see whether an increase in output for December will be agreed upon
– Bitcoin reaches a short-term support level before partially recovering from a tough 3.7% drop yesterday with a similar story for Ethereum
– US Dollar Index finally makes it into the 99s and briefly breaches a short-term resistance level; EUR/USD drops below 1.16 following ECB hold (see below) while USD/JPY above 154 gets a warning from Katayama (see below)
– European Central Bank holds on rates at (deposit facility rate) 2% as expected; in its statement “inflation remains close to the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged”; President Lagarde that from a monetary policy point of view, they’re “in a good place” with both Kocher and Villeroy echoing that viewpoint later
– Japan’s Minister of Finance Katayama monitoring FX movement “with a high sense of urgency…including those driven by speculators”
– Indices: Pullback in price sees long bias rise further into heavy buy territory in the S&P (to 74% from 71% yesterday), moves out of slight buy in the Nasdaq (to a more moderate majority long 59%), nears heavy buy in the Dow (at 64%), and back in extreme buy territory in the Russell (79% from 77%); elsewhere the Hang Seng’s pullback in price takes the bias further into extreme long territory (87% from 84%) while buyers trim their buy sentiment in the Nikkei (to 55%) as it continues its ascent
– Commodities: Falls out of extreme buy in gold (75% from 78% yesterday) as fresh longs close out near the short-term resistance level while hold in silver (at 84% buy) committed to further price gains; holds in WTI (extreme buy 83%) but shifts in natural gas (from a majority buy 59% to a slight sell 52%) following the spike in price
– FX: Longs get further tested in GBP/USD reducing their heavy buy bias (to 66% from 70%), while majority short bias in USD/JPY moves out of slight sell territory (to a more moderate 57%)
Data:
– EZ preliminary Q3 GDP 0.2% (vs 0.1% forecast); nearly all sentiment and confidence figures improve for the same month; unemployment rate in September holds at 6.3%; German preliminary CPI for October 0.3% m/m and 2.3% y/y both a notch above forecasts
– Chinese manufacturing PMI (NBS) for October worsens from 49.8 to 49, remaining in contraction territory, while services improves slightly to 50.1
