One Nation surges as Coalition infighting threatens Nationals’ seats in NSW, QueenslandTess IkonomouAAPWed, 4 February 2026 3:28AMCommentsComments
The Nationals risk an exodus of support from voters wanting to “burn the house down” after weeks of damaging infighting.
With the Liberals and Nationals unable to agree on terms for a reunion, polling has shown support for One Nation surpassing the Coalition.
Conservative working class voters who had experienced economic decline were flocking to One Nation out of disillusionment, Redbridge Group director and former Victorian Labor strategist Kos Samaras said.
“The point is revenge, cultural and political revenge,” Mr Samaras said.
“These individuals know One Nation might not have robust policies, but want to burn the house down.”
He said the Nationals risked losing all of their seats in regional NSW and Queensland, where One Nation was expected to perform particularly well.
The Liberals and Nationals were fighting to exist in the multi-party system, he added.
“They’re getting pressured from the left and the right and they don’t have an answer for one or the other,” Mr Samaras said.
A Redbridge Group/Accent Research poll, published on Sunday by The Australian Financial Review, showed support for One Nation had jumped to 26 per cent to make them the second-most popular party after Labor.
The polling has alarmed many within both the Liberals and Nationals, and is likely to spur conservatives to challenge Sussan Ley’s Liberal leadership.
Ms Ley has offered to restore the coalition on the condition that Nationals senators Bridget McKenzie, Ross Cadell, and Susan McDonald remain on the backbench for six months after they breached shadow cabinet solidarity.
It’s understood Nationals leader David Littleproud is unlikely to accept the condition, and maintains the three need to be reinstated for the coalition to reconcile.
The Redbridge poll showed the combined Liberal and National vote had sunk to 19 per cent.
Former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has joined One Nation and will run for the party in the upper house in the South Australian election in March.
Mr Bernardi, who served as a senator until 2020, said the major parties were failing voters.
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