Mini altcoin season over? I think we are about to see a record high amount of liquidation within the next few months.
This is not going to sit well with a lot of people I suspect.. Even if the count is technically correct, I suspect many will not see it as probable.
This is a bias based on not just Elliott waves, but internals of S&P and NQ looking week despite crawling higher this past few days. Ethereum and even Bitcoin having massive open interest (OI). Each time Ethereum has reached close to 4k area (2024 March, May, Dec, 2025 July), OI has increased significantly with high-ish positive funding rate. Almost all indicators for Bitcoin are red hot with bearish divergences. Momentum has stalled. Sentiment is ridiculously bullish.. after Bitcoin has had a 8x?
Having said that, from the last post, I was expecting somewhere around 3500-3600 region to finish the X wave. 1400 to 1800 run is impressive. But, so were the S&P, NQ, Bitcoin, and gold. I still see the recent April to July run as a 3-wave in Ethereum.
Invalidation is simple: it needs to break 4k. That would mean there are multiple 1-2’s stacked in the April-to-July run..
I see 1900 as a very strong level. I suspect that’s not the final destination but I expect to see a good reaction/bounce from that area. My primary target is just below 1400, the April 2025 low. Anywhere between around 1050 and 1400 should suffice, forming a massive running flat as a corrective wave 2 since 2022.
