Renewed wallet activity revives Mt. Gox FUD, threatening fragile sentiment amid declining institutional demand and macro uncertainty.
The long-running Mt. Gox saga has returned to center stage as blockchain analysts detect new movement in the defunct exchange’s wallets for the first time in seven months.
The move comes just weeks before a key repayment deadline, sparking concerns about renewed market FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).
Data on Arkham shows that Mt. Gox still holds around 34,000 Bitcoin that still need to be repaid to creditors. The court-approved extension expires on October 31, 2025 (Japan Time).
The extension came as some creditors had not completed the necessary procedures or encountered issues during repayment. As the repayment deadline approaches, investor concerns about imminent sell-pressure grow.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Mignolet, if the trustee fails to secure another delay, the remaining funds, valued at over $3.88 billion, could soon enter the market. Such an outcome could unleash a fresh wave of selling pressure and fear.
“When the extension was announced, action must be taken by October 31…If there is no further extension, these 34,000 bitcoins will eventually enter the market, which could clearly become a catalyst for creating FUD once again,” said Mignolet.
Mt. Gox began distributing Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash repayments in July 2024, marking a milestone after nearly a decade of legal proceedings.
While previous sales and government liquidations were largely absorbed by over-the-counter (OTC) demand, analysts warn that this may not be the case this time.
“Last year, about 80% of the German government’s volume was processed through OTC trading,” Mignolet noted, referencing Coinbase Prime’s role as a key institutional liquidity venue. “But unlike last year, that volume is now weakening. It remains uncertain whether the market can absorb 34,000 Bitcoins at once as it did before.”
The analyst added that if OTC channels fail to soak up the supply, the coins could spill directly into public markets, amplifying volatility.
The timing is also seen as “unfavorable,” coming amid declining institutional demand and broader macro uncertainty.
One potential buffer, Strive (ASST), had previously announced plans to follow MicroStrategy’s playbook by purchasing Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset from May 2025.
The firm, led by Vivek Ramaswamy, suggested helping absorb part of the Mt. Gox distribution. However, Mignolet expressed doubts about the feasibility of that plan.
“Strive raised $750 million through a PIPE offering, which was entirely used to purchase 5,800 bitcoins at an average price of $116,000…Absorbing the Mt. Gox volume would require at least $4 billion in funding, and it’s unclear whether such funds can be secured in the current situation,” he said.
With MicroStrategy stock under pressure and similar firms facing investor fatigue, Strive’s ability to act as a stabilizing force looks increasingly limited. Another extension to the repayment schedule could be possible, but that would “leave the bad news lingering.”
Adding to the tension, Mt. Gox-linked wallets have recently shown on-chain activity reminiscent of past pre-repayment tests.
“After seven months, movement has been detected in the Mt. Gox wallet…In the past, just before repayment, Mt. Gox conducted small-scale Bitcoin transfers for transaction testing. Now, a similar movement is being observed,” Mignolet posted on X.
While it is not yet confirmed whether these transactions signal imminent repayment, the coincidence has revived fears of a renewed Mt. Gox-driven selloff, just as market liquidity and sentiment appear most fragile.
