Digital asset treasury (DAT) companies could face significant pressure if MSCI decides to exclude them from its index in January, an analyst told Cointelegraph.
In October, MSCI announced it was consulting with the investment community on whether to remove Bitcoin and other DATs holding more than 50% of their assets in crypto from the index.
Some feedback has suggested that DATs can “exhibit characteristics similar to investment funds, which are currently not eligible for index inclusion,” MSCI noted.
Charlie Sherry, Head of Finance at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, told Cointelegraph that the likelihood of exclusion is high. He explained that MSCI typically opens consultations only when it is already leaning toward a change.
The consultation period runs until Dec. 31, with a final decision expected on Jan. 15, and any resulting changes scheduled to take effect in February. MSCI is also seeking input on whether additional criteria should apply, such as a company’s self-identification as a DAT or whether it raised capital primarily to accumulate crypto.
If DATs are excluded, Sherry said index-tracking funds would be forced to sell, creating “meaningful pressure” on the affected companies.
A preliminary list of 38 crypto firms under MSCI’s consideration includes Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy, Sharplink Gaming, and miners Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital Holdings.
“When most of the value comes from a balance-sheet asset rather than the underlying business, MSCI treats that as outside the scope of a traditional equity benchmark,” Sherry said. “It’s a risk-management decision designed to keep indexes aligned with predictable business fundamentals.”
“This also marks a shift in tone from the past year. Crypto-heavy corporate strategies were applauded as a capital markets innovation. Now the large index providers are tightening their definitions, and it shows that the market is moving out of its everything is adoption phase and back toward a more conservative filter.”
A note from JPMorgan analysts on Wednesday warned that MicroStrategy could lose $2.8 billion if MSCI follows through, with around $9 billion of its estimated $56 billion market value held in index-tracking passive funds, Bloomberg reports.
Uncertain if other indexes will follow
Sherry said it’s “hard to call at this stage” whether MSCI’s decision would prompt other index providers to act.
“Index providers often monitor each other, but they don’t always move in unison. S&P’s approach to MicroStrategy shows there is precedent for a stricter stance, yet each provider has its own methodology and client considerations,” he explained.
“If MSCI makes a change, it could open the door for others to review their own rules, but it doesn’t guarantee a chain reaction.”
MicroStrategy still appears on track for potential inclusion in the S&P 500, according to crypto market intelligence firm 10X Research, which in October estimated a 70% chance the company would be added to the index before year-end.
Clearer rules benefit crypto
Sherry also noted that well-defined corporate classification rules ultimately help the crypto sector. “When companies know how their treasury decisions will be treated, it removes uncertainty for both issuers and investors,” he said.
“Well-defined frameworks tend to strengthen long-term institutional confidence, even if the short-term impact is uncomfortable for stocks built around Bitcoin holdings.”
