Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.
The world’s biggest prediction market is flirting with a token.
And it’s doing it while eyeing a stratospheric new valuation, rolling out earnings markets with Stocktwits, and prepping a regulated U.S. return.
Polymarket’s recent SEC filings hinted at “other warrants” which typically indicate a token.
This has led to broad speculation of a Polymarket token in the works.
And the token speculation comes just days after multiple outlets reported that Polymarket has raised a fresh round that could value the company as high as $9B-$10B.
A massive jump from the ~$1B valuation discussed in June.
That’s a lot of big money news, coming along with major fundamental progress:
The $10B raise makes a bit more sense with that backdrop.
“Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the @CFTC. Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work.” – Shayne Coplan, CEO, on X (Sep 3)
“Prediction markets transform uncertainty into clarity by turning big questions-like earnings-into simple, tradable outcomes with transparent pricing.” – Matthew Modabber, CMO, Polymarket, on the Stocktwits partnership.
“Polymarket is the largest prediction market in the world, and the U.S. needs access to this important platform.” – Donald Trump Jr., as Polymarket added him to its advisory board following 1789 Capital’s investment.
If a Polymarket token launches, it turns users into owners, likely deepens liquidity across markets, and enables new incentive design (e.g., fee shares, staking for dispute resolution, or market-maker rewards).
Timing-wise, it makes sense.
They have more momentum than ever with the combination of regulatory approval, new product verticals (earnings markets), sports markets catching fire (see Kalshi’s latest volume surge) and a general explosion in prediction market interest.
And just the hint of a token is enough to steal market share and attention from their rival Kalshi (which has flipped Polymarket in volume as of late).
All being equal, users will trade on the apps that have the best lines, market and/or best UX.
With token incentives in the mix, the decision of which app to use has a heavily weighted new factor.
So expect Polymarket volumes and attention to boom here in the near future.
As for its token, it’s tough to value. Polymarket is a true unicorn. And without them taking a fee, there is no revenue model to use.
It wouldn’t be crazy at all to think a Polymarket token would fetch $5B-$10B upon its debut.
Here’s a rundown of major token, protocol and airdrop news from the day:
Section dedicated to headlines in the AI sector of crypto:
Here is the list of other notable headlines from the day in NFTs:
