This Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026, XRP tests its 200-week moving average, altcoins register a five-year cumulative sell extreme and Arthur Hayes maps two Bitcoin paths as AI-driven credit stress builds.
Bitcoin is still in the $60,000-$69,000 range after a reset from October 2025 highs, while XRP defends a structural level that has historically defined cycle pivots. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows $209 billion in cumulative net selling across altcoins over 13 months.
TL;DR
The weekly chart by TradingView remains, probably, the main point of view for XRP. Where it differs from other time frames is the illustration of how the price of XRP is compressing directly above the 200-week moving average, currently around the $1.42 region. Price action is stabilizing near $1.47 after repeated tests of this band, a level that historically separates structural bull phases from prolonged bear markets.
The 200-week MA is not a short-term trading indicator. It is a long-cycle equilibrium reference. In prior cycles, weekly closes below this metric often triggered multi-month weakness, while sustained defenses marked accumulation zones.
Momentum indicators show fading strength. RSI has rolled over from prior peaks and now sits in the midrange, indicating neither oversold capitulation nor bullish expansion. The broader structure reflects distribution since the October 2025 peak.
XRP is not collapsing yet. The price of the coin is compressing at a level institutions monitor. In an environment where altcoin liquidity is deteriorating, holding a 200-week support becomes a relative strength signal.
If this band fails on high volume, the next historical demand pocket aligns closer to the $1 region, where prior capitulation zones formed. If it holds and weekly closes build above $1.60, recovery becomes technically credible.
XRP is a binary zone right now.
According to the latest CryptoQuant research, the one-year cumulative buy/sell quote volume difference for altcoins, excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, shows -$209 billion since January 2025. That is a five-year extreme.
The chart does reflect 13 consecutive months of net CEX spot outflows. The last equilibrium between demand and supply occurred in January 2025, when cumulative flow was near zero. Since then, the line has moved in one direction.
Key data points:
It is fair to say, based on CryptoQuant data, that this is not rotation within altcoins but capital exiting the segment as retail participation has withdrawn, smart money rotated and no institutional altcoin accumulation is visible on centralized spot venues.
The absence of buyers matters for XRP and all non-BTC majors. Even strong technical supports weaken when structural liquidity drains. While Bitcoin retains macro narrative relevance, altcoins face structural demand decay.
Historically, multiquarter net selling periods end only when:
At present, neither condition is confirmed.
In his Feb. 18, 2026, Substack essay entitled “This is Fine,” BitMEX cofounder Arthur Hayes describes Bitcoin as a “global fiat liquidity fire alarm” and warns of an emerging “AI financial crisis.”
Bitcoin’s drop from $126,000 in October 2025 to roughly $60,000 occurred while the Nasdaq 100 remained relatively flat. Hayes interprets this divergence as early signaling of tightening dollar liquidity and deflationary pressure before traditional markets fully adjust.
His thesis centers on labor displacement. He estimates that a 20% reduction among 72.1 million U.S. white-collar workers, with average salaries near $85,000, could produce:
Smaller regional banks would fail first. Depositor runs would follow. Credit would freeze faster than during 2008 due to digital speed and AI amplification.
Hayes outlines two Bitcoin scenarios:
The decline to $60,000 marked the majority of the downside. Equities eventually correct or stabilize. As soon as the Federal Reserve signals renewed quantitative easing in 2026, Bitcoin rebounds sharply.
Bitcoin falls below $60,000 as equities, private credit and risk assets reprice the AI shock. Bank failures accelerate. Liquidity panic intensifies. Only then does the Fed deploy emergency stimulus, igniting a new cycle and sending Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs.
Both paths share the same structural arc: short-term deflationary pressure, followed by large-scale fiat expansion.
Hayes’s tactical advice is consistent with prior cycles: preserve liquidity, limit leverage, accumulate when the policy reversal becomes visible.
The three segments connect through liquidity with XRP defending a long-cycle support, while altcoin liquidity registers a five-year extreme negative flow. Bitcoin is pricing macro stress earlier than equities. Hayes argues that monetary expansion in 2026 is inevitable once systemic pressure escalates.
Key levels to monitor:
If deflation intensifies before Fed intervention, risk assets face further repricing. If liquidity returns earlier, Bitcoin will likely lead the recovery, with select majors such as XRP following only after sustained capital inflow.
