-Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.
From the Editor
Hello Morning Bid readers!
The end of the U.S. government shutdown may be an example of “buying the rumor and selling the news”, as Wall Street tumbled on Thursday after rallying earlier in the week. Though with Nvidia and other AI leaders recording meaningful losses yesterday, and bets on Federal Reserve cuts getting pared back, the major market-moving issues clearly remain “AI bubble” fears and the trajectory for policy easing.
One reason the end of the longest-ever government shutdown – 43 days, if you were counting – had only a modest impact on markets is that economic clarity – one of investors’ biggest concerns related to the closure – is unlikely to clear up, even with Washington DC open, as ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever and ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan both explained this week.
That lack of clarity is bad news for Fed Chair Jay Powell, and can help explain why the U.S. central bank may pause next month, as Mike Dolan argues.
Over in Asia, the yen fell to its weakest level in nine months on Wednesday, brushing up against the crucial 155 level. Jamie McGeever argues that government intervention to prop up the yen may not yet be a given, but investors should still remain on high alert.
Staying in Japan, a peculiar similarity is emerging between new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump. They both appear set on using fiscal stimulus to combat cost-of-living concerns – which, as Jamie McGeever argues, is a bit like trying to bring a fire under control by dousing it with gasoline.
Meanwhile, in energy markets, the International Energy Agency on Wednesday published its World Energy Outlook, which introduced a new scenario showing that, given current government policies, oil demand will not plateau in 2030 as previously expected, but will instead keep rising through mid-century. It’s sobering reading for world leaders meeting in Brazil for COP30, explains ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso examines.
Speaking of the climate summit, ROI energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire looks at what has – and what hasn’t – changed since the landmark COP21 Paris agreement ten years ago.
The growing bullishness about the outlook for oil and gas demand was certainty apparent in energy giant Chevron’s latest strategy update, also released on Wednesday. Ron Bousso argues that it shrugs off long-term anxieties about the transition toward low-carbon energy as well as near-term concerns about a potential looming oversupply.
On the topic of oversupply, ROI Asia commodities columnist Clyde Russell wrote this week that the LNG market is bracing for a surge in supply next year, with significant uncertainty about how low spot prices will have to drop to clear the additional volumes.
Finally, over in the metals markets, ROI metals columnist Andy Home notes that copper has been added to the U.S. government’s list of critical minerals, even though the U.S. has the world’s second largest copper stockpile.
As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.
I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at
This weekend, we’re reading…
CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: This in-depth new report from the think tank Asia House looks at the expanding trade between the Middle East Gulf and Asia, noting that – for the first time ever – trade between the Gulf and China is now bigger than the region’s trade with the West. While energy remains the foundation of the trade relationship, it also is expanding into other sectors such as construction and electronics.
MIKE DOLAN, ROI Financial Markets Editor-at-Large: This piece by economic historian Marc-William Palen for the IMF’s Finance & Development magazine is a nice sweep of economic history that compares the current attempt to roll back globalization with the prior free trade waves going back into the 18th and 19th centuries – and the periodic, sometimes, disastrous retreats to economic nationalism. The piece asks whether we’re at a unique juncture now or just experiencing another cyclical wave.
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: “Bubble or Nothing” is deep-dive by the Center for Public Enterprise into the AI boom – its funding and energy needs, its ‘circular’ financing, the revenues it may or may not generate, and the potential economic risks if the bubble pops. It has some excellent – and simple – graphics too. It’s long and detailed, though, so it’s perhaps one to bookmark.
GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: While the IEA’s latest report may have grabbed attention for saying that fossil fuels will linger in the global energy mix for longer that previously forecast, this outlook from Ember expects that clean energy sources will continue to squeeze out coal and gas in world electricity generation. It also features great detail on trends in key markets.
We’re listening to…
RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: How effective are U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry? The answer is a mixed picture. This Carnegie Politika podcast with Edward Fishman offers some great insights.
And we’re watching…
ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: Our very own Mike Dolan joined the Reuters Econ World podcast for part two of the “AI bubble” discussion. Mike spoke with host Carmel Crimmins about the real-world impact of the artificial intelligence capex frenzy and the role national security is playing in the multi-billion dollar spending spree.
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